by John Walters

Starting Five

30 for ’20

Did someone say 30,000 deaths in the United States? They will be day’s end.

It was only eight days ago that the staggering total was still below 15,000. It will have doubled in little more than a week. Or, as the President said more than one week ago, “A lot of death.”

Where does it end? Far too soon to tell, of course.

Meanwhile, in yesterday’s edition of “TCM Versus Today,” we watched No Way Out: the Sydney Poitier/Richard Widmark version from 1950, not the Kevin Costner/Sean Young version from 1987 (entirely different stories). In the 1950 version, Poitier is a young black doctor—the actor was only 22 when he landed the role and lied to the producer that he was 27 to land the part—who works on two criminal siblings, the Biddle brothers, who’ve just been shot in a robbery attempt. One of them dies and the other, played by Widmark (who probably sets a record, not since topped by a white actor, for the most uses of the N-word in one film), decides to blame Poitier for intentionally trying to kill his brother.

The plot then centers on Poitier attempting to have an autopsy done while Widmark refuses to let him do it: ostensibly because he doesn’t want his brother cut open “like a chunk of wood” but really because he’d rather remain ignorant and continue to blame the “n_____r doctor.” At one point his sister-in-law, the dead man’s wife, literally asks, “But why don’t you want to let them do the tests?” and he replies, “Because I have the answer right here (and points to his skull).”

Remember when Trump, only a week ago, said, “This is my metric?” It was that all over again.

Who needs cable news when you have TCM? Widmark, by the way, was fantastic and truly loathsome in this role.

Covid Comes Back

The headline that most caught our eyes this morning? The fact that in South Korea, 140 people who recovered from Covid-19 contracted it again. This ain’t the chicken pox, and it opens up some questions people may not want to consider.

If Covid-19 can recur in people, then what are we all supposed to do between now and Vaccine Day, which is likely still a year away? So you stay indoors and/or away from other humans for a month or three, but when we reemerge, then what? Everyone who has had it and recovered is probably just as likely to get it again. It’s like, Okay, stay away from the people with cooties until they recover… but even once they do recover, we are ALL just as likely to get the cooties again, both those of us who’ve never had it and those who have. So it’s not as if waiting those people out reduces the number of potential sufferers one iota. They’re all still in the pool with the rest of us.

A prediction: eventually the White House and business leaders are going to decide that the curve has flattened enough. And here’s the lynch pin: The NFL . If there is any public event business that can override shelter in place, it is The Shield. And they will. The NFL will play this autumn. Because at a certain point the potentates of this nation will understand that until a vaccine arrives, no shelter-in-place method is going to work unless it stays in effect until the vaccine. For the reasons outlined above: People who have had Covid and recovered are just as susceptible to catching it again, and you’re never going to get it down to zero patients, thus by separating those who’ve had from those who haven’t you’re not really doing anything effective once you let the former back into the population once they’ve recovered.

It’s an ALL or NOTHING proposition until the vaccine arrives. And I don’t think our “leaders” will have that much patience… with patients. We’ll see.

Rebounding From March 23rd

Yesterday CNBC posted a headline about bleak earnings reports and in its sub hed used a quote from a financier saying, “The economy is in ruins.”

Certain sectors, certainly. But as Mark Haines of CNBC called the 2008-2009 market bottom on March 9 (I believe, may be a day off) in real time, we wonder (using hindsight) if the market bottom hasn’t already hit: on March 23, 2020.

Let’s look at where a few stocks were on that day and where they are since:

United Health (UNH): March 23, $195, April 16: $286 UP 47%

Apple (AAPL): $212 to $285 UP 34%

Amazon (AMZN): $1,827 to $2,391 UP 31%

Question: Who among us had the temerity to go ALL IN and be bullish on March 23rd (I didn’t)? How many of us/you are up even 30% since that day? These are not tiny companies, in fact they’re Nos. 13, 2 and 3 respectively by market cap. You didn’t need to search far and wide to find them.

Of course, it’s easy to call a market bottom three weeks after the fact. Do we have any answers/insights? Our only suggestion, and that’s all it is, is that in this period of volatility, on a day when things are going well, it might not be the worst idea to sell and be very liquid. Wait for another awful day or spate of them. Does that make you a day trader? Perhaps.

Anyway, do what’s best for you. We’re just here to point out what has been happening, best we are able.

Earlier this morning Jim Cramer asked on CNBC, “Has Amazon become a small country now?” He noted this in the wake that Amazon has hired more people in the past month than anyone—as most companies are firing workers—and continues to do so. A Barclay’s banker says he’d rather own Amazon now than any other stock. So would we.

From “Gooooooooal!” To “Gooooo!”

We haven’t wanted to say much about SI’s unceremonious firing of Grant Wahl and we’re completely glad we’re off Twitter for moments such as this. I’ve known Grant since he started at SI and we’ve always been friendly, at the very least collegial. We played on the same SI hoops team [our best players? John O’Keefe, who could’ve played D3, easily, and Steve Rushin, who’s too talented in too many areas of life…it’s downright maddening 🙂 ] for a few years and I was always impressed by how intelligent this Princeton grad is. His wife, Dr. Celine Gounder, whom you now are able to see on MSNBC and CNN advising about the pandemic as an NYU epidemiologist, used to watch our games as a medical resident. She obviously had better ways of spending her time, but she still attended those games.

A couple of items: I recall watching the epic Champions League final of 1999 at an Upper East Side bar with three friends. They were: Grant, Rushin (SI’s greatest Anglophile and a soccer fan) and Jeff Bradley, an SI alum by that time and yes, the younger brother of Bob. I’m pretty sure I have the squad correct. It says something about where soccer coverage was in the USA then that we were all watching in a bar together. Jeff was writing soccer for espn.com at that point and Grant was about to be SI’s voice of soccer for the next two decades. Steve could’ve been had he wanted, as he was SI’s singular talent in all walks and still in his early 30s. That was the match in which Bayern led 1-0 until injury time, during which Manchester United scored 2 goals and stole the match away. It was my international soccer baptism.

Anyway, I remember that day. I remember nine years later pitching Grant on the idea —I had since moved to NBC and we were both in Beijing for the Olympics— of a nightly Olympic soccer roundup called… wait for it… The Grant Wahl of China. Grant was enthusiastic, my broadcast talent, Mary Carillo, was enthusiastic, but someone higher up at NBC was not as fond of puns as I, and it never happened. Alas….

Anyway, I don’t know what happened between SI and Grant. I certainly don’t begrudge any writer making a living, a healthy living, but relative to the times and to the beat, that salary was ginormous. And I recall myself being a 12-year veteran at SI and speaking up when I thought things were unfair. And paying a price for it. Was I right? Probably. Did it matter? No.

I was fortunate enough to have SI take me back. Twice.

Grant will be fine. And he did as much as any writer in the past 20 years to promote the sport in the U.S. While traveling the world and living a pretty fabulous life doing so. As time passes, hopefully he’ll remember that. And somehow I’m sure he’ll be at the next World Cup, even if they still stage it in the midst of a Lawrence of Arabia set.

Sports Year 1875

On November 13, the inaugural edition of “The Game” between Harvard and Yale is played in New Haven. The Crimson prevail 4-0 under their modified rugby rules and are named national champion.

The inaugural running of the Kentucky Derby sees Aristides in the winner’s circle.

In “association football,” a new practice known as heading the ball is introduced by players on Sheffield FC. Also, a player on Sheffield, Billy Mosforth, becomes renowned for being able to “bend” his shot. Bend It Like Billy?

The Boston Red Stockings go 71-8 and are champions of the National Association of Professional Baseball Players for a fourth consecutive season. Al Spalding goes 54-5 on the mound. The association will shorten its name to “National League” before next season.

Willie Park, Sr., wins the British Open one year after his brother, Mungo, had won. It was Willie’s fourth Open title, including in the event’s inaugural year, 1860. Park, a tall and handsome Scot, would have 10 children.

Meanwhile, our old friend Young Tom Morris meets Death’s gaze on Christmas day. It is a terrible and tragic year for the other four-time Open champ. On September 11, he and his namesake father (the third four-time Open champ) were playing a team match versus Willie and Mungo Park (really) at North Berwick when Young Tom got a telegram that his pregnant wife was having a difficult labor. Wikipedia notes that they finished the last two holes of the match (shame!), then hurried home by ship up the coast but by the time they arrived both wife and child were dead. Broken-hearted, Young Tom died four months later on Christmas day at the age of 24.