STARTING FIVE

YOU’RE SLIPPIN’, JIMMY

Justice Matters Most?

Nope.

Just Make Money.

It’s incredible what the writers of Better Call Saul do. Is it a master plan that they’ve had in place that allows them to come up with things such as they did in last night’s episode, for example, using Jimmy McGill’s initials on his briefcase to demonstrate his transformation to the dark side? Or, even better, to illustrate that metamorphosis by having him go off on Howard Hamlin in the episode’s final scene exactly like he did the very first time we saw them together, only that this time Jimmy’s not goofing when he goes all Ned Beatty in Network on Howard? This time he’s sincere?

And even that shot above, where we see him contemplating his total abandonment of scruples in favor of fame and fortune? Astounding. Seriously, how do the writers do it? Has it all been blocked out from before Season 1 or are they just very good at thinking on their feet and using what has come before? It looks so seamless.

As for Jimmy, we’ve finally lost him completely to Saul. As I wrote last week, there was always a Robin Hood aspect to him in the past. Sure, he took short cuts and flat-out committed fraud, but it was always to help the little guy, be it little old ladies in nursing homes or Kim Wexler. When he and Giselle would scam a d-bag at a bar, they never actually cashed the check.

That’s over now. Jimmy just committed fraud in a courtroom (not a single reporter in court for a high-profile murder in Albuquerque? I don’t think so) in order to get a cartel member out on bail. And Howard, who we told you wasn’t that dumb, just called him on his bullsh*t. And both Howard and Jimmy know that Howard didn’t kill Chuck; Jimmy killed Chuck, if anyone did.

S’all good? Hardly.

No Poop For You

We love the idea of Larry David’s spite store, “Latte Larry’s,” recusing itself from having defecation facilities. What we don’t understand is how Mr. David (unless he did so in the season finale, which we have yet to watch) failed to have some fun with arguably the most renowned catchphrase in Seinfeld history by making a “No poop for you!” reference. Maybe a sign outside the restrooms?

Bidet Day*

*The judges will also accept “Geyser Will Helm”

Wondering if the toilet paper shortage (Mike Huckabee suggests a corn cob, Susie B.) will persuade Americans to finally fall in love with the bidet. Invented in France in the 17th century—there is no known single inventor; no one wants to take credit for it—the torrent of water module has never caught on here in America. But maybe now? To paraphrase a line from scripture, “Love your enemas as yourself.”

Market Watching

We thought about some of the comments on Friday’s item, about how most people didn’t have capital available after 2008-2009 to invest in the stock market and pull themselves back up. Here’s what we think: most people, and this may just be intentional by the (mostly) men who populate Wall Street, are intimidated by the stock market and never bother to learn it.

In the past decade I’ve worked with dozens of people who are incredibly hard workers but don’t have an advanced degree. Many don’t have a college degree. And almost none of them are in the stock market. Now, I know plenty of them (and this applies particularly to sports writers) who know their way around a gambler’s den—parlays, over/unders, +300 or -220, or even how to play craps—but if I mention the stock market, it’s always either, “No” or “I have it in a mutual fund” or “I leave that to my 401K.”

The same people who gladly spend half an hour a day in the fall tracking their fantasy team(s) in a league where first prize will earn you $500 are scared off by, or uninterested in, the prospects of making themselves “a 36-bagger” as our Faithful Reader has with her Amazon stock.

It would be nice if everyone was given a rudimentary education in the stock market in high school. The basics aren’t hard to understand at all. The first step in making the field of play more even is to demystify the way the top 5% remain the top 5%.

Tall Tale

Learned an interesting fact yesterday that we thought we’d share. Only 4% of men in America are 6’2″ or taller. And yet 36% of American CEOs are 6’2″ or taller.

I’ll never forget a very intelligent and decent man I worked with at SI, who was closer to 5’6″, telling me, “If I were six-feet tall, I’d be running this place.” And he should have. By the way, when I was there are managing editors (de facto CEOs of the editorial side) were 6’4″ and 6’2″.

Reserves

Prine Time

Musician and songwriting legend John Prine is, as of this writing, in critical condition due to COVID-19. Here’s a clip from three years ago of he and Stephen Colbert performing “That’s The Way The World Goes ‘Round.” Best wishes to Prine, 73, that he can beat it.

What’s to tell? Who looked good in baseball’s opening weekend? How we’re looking at an all-Catholic Final Four (Gonzaga, Marquette, Seton Hall and Villanova)? Steph Curry’s return?

Today’s Deep Thought: Remembering watching NYFD workers by the dozens rushing into the World Trade Center as both towers were burning and thinking, All those brave men are sacrificing their lives for a (mostly) lost cause. Can’t help but wonder about all the doctors and nurses and PA’s in New York City right now who are tempting a similar fate. Check out this story in the NYT.

Up Next? 3,000

On Thursday we predicted 2,000 deaths in the USA by month’s end. It looks as if we’ll be touching 3,000 by April 1. New York alone has topped 1,000 deaths. And April’s going to be a spectacularly grisly month here.

April, Come She Will

In what has become a pattern, the President made a statement downplaying the severity of the virus (“America needs to reopen by Easter”) and then was bombarded with information and warnings by the few people on his staff who don’t have dollar signs in their eyes. Now he’s advising Americans to shelter in place and chill out for the entire month of April. Which, sure, better late than never.

Full-Court Press

This month has been an extended lesson in the value of a free press and why an authoritarian such as Donald Trump (and his administration) despises it. If the only information we ever received was from the White House, you’d think that COVID-19 was “under control” and that nothing more needed to be done. Restaurants, bars and gyms, etc., would likely be open. You’d be hearing anecdotal stories from health-care workers you know, or friends or family who know them, that something was askew.

The tallies we receive daily on deaths and cases? Would not exist. The challenges that President Trump receives from the media, as he did yesterday, when he contradicts himself over statements he’d previously made? That wouldn’t happen. Yamiche Alcindor would be working at a gulag somewhere in central Nevada.

Makes you wonder how many people really have died in China. And Russia.

Procter & Gamble Is No Gamble

MH Capital bought shares of Procter & Gamble (PG) as soon as this outbreak became a reality and we saw tweets of individual shoppers trying to corner the market on toilet paper. A quick glance at just some of the products P&G, based in Cincinnati, makes: Charmin, Bounty, Cascade, Comet, Dawn, Downy and the Swiffer!

It’s built for these times, and Jefferies, whose CFO died this weekend due to COVID-19, just gave it an upgrade this morning. P&G sunk to $96 last Monday, the worst day for stocks in I believe forever (but certainly for this month), but it’s now up around $115 this morning. Keep cleaning, and keep cleaning up with PG.*

*A reminder that most of the time we don’t know what we’re talking about.

Cancel College Football?

Apparently last week ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit, a respected and measured voice in college football (unless it comes to which schools should make the playoff, occasionally), said that he could not see the 2020 season happening under the current virus-related climate. Quoth Herbie to TMZ.com:

“I’ll be shocked if we have NFL football this fall, if we have college football. I’ll be so surprised if that happens. Just because from what I understand, people that I listen to, you’re 12 to 18 months from a [coronavirus] vaccine. I don’t know how you let these guys go into locker rooms and let stadiums be filled up and how you can play ball. I just don’t know how you can do it with the optics of it.”

He’s right, of course (which reminds me: Any of you folks who pay attention to what Clay Travis says/tweets have any update on how he’s treating the virus now). But I imagine Herbie’s words were not welcome inside the Mickey Mouse Club and elsewhere. If college football were to deem it unsafe to play come September, how reckless would the NFL look if it went ahead and played (newsflash: I doubt Roger Goodell cares).

Another consideration: if there’s no 2020 season, I can see the NCAA allowing players to retain the year of eligibility, but also I can see players who want to exit to the NFL going. So there’s a chance we’ve seen Trevor Lawrence’s final game in Clemson orange. Moreover, do all schedules just get pushed by a year or do the game from 2020 just vanish into thin air? I’d assume the latter.

Also, if there is no 2020 NFL season, how would draft order be determined?

*The judges will always accept “The Worst Wing”

You wanna Make America Great Again? Toss everyone in this photo off the side of the S.S. Pandemic. I’m not sure if Jared Kushner, Stephen Miller and Kellyanne Con-her-way were also in the Oval Office for this moment, but man, what a Molotov Cocktail and a few locked doors and window might have accomplished.

Anyway, the President (of course) railed against the oversight measures in the bill, designed explicitly to keep his and Jared’s hands out of the cookie jar. The avarice has no ceiling.

Meanwhile, Bill Maher told Maureen Dowd what we wrote earlier this week: that the Democratic Party should rip up all the primary results and forsake all the debates and nominate Andrew Cuomo for President: a tough guy from Queens who is a second-generation America kicking the ass of a faux tough guy from Queens who is a second-generation American. Urge you to read Ms. Dowd’s column.

Even better is this Op-Ed from Roger Cohen in this morning’s New York Times, “A Silent Spring.” And if you’re too cool or too knowledgeable to read the New York Times, well, be on your way. You’re also the guy who thinks the Beatles are overrated.

Starting Five

We’re No. 1!

Yesterday the USA took the lead among all nations for most coronavirus cases reported (and we ain’t lookin’ back!). If you’re scoring, or gasping, at home, the tally at the top now reads:

USA………….. 85,000-plus cases

China………. 81,000-plus cases

Italy………… 80,000-plus cases

We’ve come a long way in just a week, and let’s give credit where it’s due: Donald J. Trump. Oh, and remember what he said one month and one day ago, on February 26?

“You have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be close to zero.” 

Not so much.

Shutting off flights from China? Smart. Not testing anyone entering JFK or Newark from Europe, specifically Italy? Catastrophic.

I recall CNBC’s Jim Cramer around the second to third week of February opining that if he were a young reporter, he’d head out to JFK and interview passengers getting off flights from Milan to see if they had been screened in any way. Prescient.

Meanwhile, I remember walking through the Times Square subway station transfer area at rush hour three weeks ago today. Thinking of all the humanity rushing past me, commuters on their way to Westchester, Long Island and New Jersey, travelers from other continents making their way to JFK or Newark. And I remember thinking then, If it’s already here, there’s no stopping it now.

New York, with 39,000 reported cases, would rank as the fifth-most contaminated country behind only the USA, China, Italy and Spain right now.

The Death Calculus

I wanted to address a comment—by the way, I truly “appreciate” (Curb reference) the comments from everyone, particularly since I’m no longer on Twitter—from Kurt yesterday regarding the data on ways Americans find to die each year that don’t receive the hype that the coronavirus has.

The more I thought about it, the more these two thoughts reigned: 1) While Kurt has a point, let’s wait until the coronavirus goes through a full one-year cycle here (March 1, 2020 – February 28, 2021) to consider it alongside these other mortality figures and 2) I don’t recall anyone doing this sort of comparative calculus after 9/11, an event that claimed 2,996 lives.

You wanna talk about “the cure being worse than the disease,” let’s talk 9/11. We lost 3,000 people that day (the coronavirus should top that figure some time in the first week of April), we all knew that it was a one-time event, or not viral, we knew that it was highly preventable (if FBI higher-ups had simply listened to their field officers), and we even knew that no sovereign nation had perpetrated it. In other words, it was a crime and not an act of war.

In Iraq alone, we’ve lost 1 1/2 times the soldiers that were lost on 9/11 and oh, by the way, Iraq played no role in the attack. The Iraqi people have lost an estimated 150,000 people due indirectly to 9/11. I’m not even figuring the Afghanistan conflict into this.

But more than debating, yet again, the righteousness or malicious intent with our invading Iraq, let’s return to the original point. Did anyone say, in early October of 2001, Yo, we lose 10 times more Americans to the flu, what’s the big deal? No, instead we got a full dosage of Alan Jackson songs and a second helping of patriotism.

Curious, eh? Part of this is due to the fact that in 2001 we weren’t all up in each other’s social media grills minute by minute. Yes, the internet existed, but it wasn’t quite directly pumped into our veins the way it is now. I wake up, I check The New York Times coronavirus updates and see how many new dead there are in the USA. I can check back once or twice again before I hit the pillow and they will have updated the figures. We’re all living inside a Black Mirror episode these days.

Nineteen years ago, this same newspaper provided obituaries/profiles of every 9/11 victim, but they rolled those out over a matter of months. We are simply more triggered more often now (another reason I jumped off Twitter).

But my fundamental question remains: If America was willing to spend nearly $2 trillion to avenge an attack that was entirely perpetrated on one sublime September morning in the northeast, an attack that left nearly 3,000 dead, why wasn’t anyone then comparing the damage to other means of death in the USA annually? Oh, and yes, I get the irony of the “stimulus” package (it’s a relief package, people) that passed yesterday costing about the same.

Unprotected Sects

In Louisiana, a state climbing up the coronavirus rankings so fast that it would make Casey Casem howl with delight (currently 9th), the right reverend (Far Right reverend?) Tony Spell welcomed 1,000 congregants to his Life Tabernacle Church in Baton Rouge on Sunday.

Against the governor’s orders. Pelican Staters have been ordered not to congregate in groups above 50.

In the faith versus fate debate, there’s a part of me that is all for this. There’s really no faster way to eradicate stupid, without resorting to violence, than to allow the evangelicals to congregate all they want in the midst of a pandemic. Am I against religion? Let’s think of it more as me being in favor of freedom of religion.

I’m reminded of this scene from True Detective, early in the series, when Rust and Marty visit a tentpole religious service. And Rust observes, “All these people speeding to a red light” and “I think it’s safe to say none of these people are gonna be splitting the atom.”

Is it right to make fun of the ignorant? Of course not. You know what’s worse? Taking advantage of them. Which is what Tony Spell and, yes, Donald Trump are doing.

By the way, my “landlord” observed this morning that this virus, particularly in densely populated cities, is probably far more difficult on poor people. And then, after a few moments, “Isn’t that always the way?”

A light comes on. Maybe this is why President Trump doesn’t care half as much about the virus as he does the economy. A plague that eradicates both the old AND the poor? He’d call that heaven-sent.

And if we have to lose a few doctors, nurses, physician’s assistants and lab techs along the way? Well, that’s just the price of progress.

Buying Boeing? Boing!

On Monday shares of Boeing, which had been up above $300 all of last year and through January and most of February of this year, were available for $91. Think about this: as recently as February 25th, Boeing (BA) shares were selling for $320.

The good folks at MH Capital decided to dip their beak in the waters and purchase some. Like, a lot. Either Boeing was going to go the way of Lehman Brothers (a stalwart American company that just vanished into thin air during a financial crisis) or it would experience a (government-abetted) recovery.

So, again, on Monday, shares of Boeing? $91.

Yesterday? Shares of Boeing were selling for $182.

Now, I’m no New York Times editorial board member, but if you can add 1 + 1 and also 9 + 9, I think the math comes out to… yes, that’s DOUBLE. A two-bagger, Susie B.? In just four days.

We’d love to say that we held onto Boeing for the entire ride, but we didn’t want to be hogs (“Hogs get slaughtered”) and got out, mostly, after a 33% gain. Who knew it would keep soaring upward… like a plane that actually works?

Anyway, it’s a volatile market. There are great opportunities here. Buy low. Sell high. Everything else is window dressing.

Stars 80

Two famously feisty folks turn 80 years old today: House Majority leader Nancy Pelosi and actor James Caan.

We’ll always admire Nancy for standing up to the Tangerine Tantrum and we’ll always appreciate Caan’s Sonny Corleone for standing up for his sister. Of course, one of them was/is a little better about controlling their rage.

by John Walters

Starting Five

Death March

By the time you read this, the United States will have surpassed 1,000 reported coronavirus-related deaths (the actual number could be twice that when you consider how many victims never were tested). It may be difficult to fathom, but when you went to sleep on the last day of February (29th), the first coronavirus death had not even taken place.

You may remember that it was not until Saturday, March 1st, that the first coronavirus fatality, in Washington state, was reported. President Trump reported that the patient was a woman in her 50s. It was a man. The next day, March 2nd, Robert Redfield, the director of the CDC, noted that “the person was erroneously identified as a female.”

He never mentioned who erroneously identified that patient.

We’ve been rather conservative with many of our predictions, both here and on Twitter. Three weeks ago we said sports should shut down for all of March (it will be longer). On Monday we said the U.S. death toll would top 1,000 by Sunday (it was shorter). Then yesterday we had a record number of deaths for one day, 223. So here we are, on March 25th, and we’ll go ahead and say that the U.S. death toll, which took 25 days to get to 1,000, will be at 2,000 by April 1st. We’ll see.

Best thing we heard yesterday, from Dr. Anthony Fauci to CNN’s Chris Cuomo: “We don’t decide the timeline. The virus decides the time line.”

From Spring Breakers To Record Breakers

In just the past 12 or so hours, the United States has broken two very dubious fiscal records. First, the Senate passed a $2 trillion relief bill, the largest aid package in American history (remember, though, the government never had the funds for universal health care). Then this morning, a record-high jobless claims number of 3.28 million came in from the Department of Labor.

Sniff, sniff. Do you smell that? It smells a lot like socialism to me.

Just What I Didn’t Want*

*This will make sense when you read the above

Hopefully, you’re healthy. And if so, you may find yourself reading more books during this isolation period. This week I finally tackled my old SI colleague and friend Steve Rushin’s childhood memoir, Sting-Ray Afternoons.

I really enjoyed it. Steve and I were born 12 days apart in 1966 and it was enjoyable to read a master craftsman relive a parallel suburban childhood. Those of us who lived through it will tell you that we cannot imagine having grown up in a better decade than the ’70s. Steve hits on plenty of notes that will resound with anyone now in their 50s: Evel Knievel, killer bees, Saturday nights on CBS, the undeniable street cred of Levi’s corduroys (for Catholic school students), the woods behind one’s house/neighborhood where all types of nature were explored (our Crestview woods, in New Jersey, was where I spied my first Playboy mag), wood-paneled station wagons (ours was a Chevrolet), basements, baseball cards (I still have more than 4,000 of mine) that came in clear plastic packs of 42, etc.

It was also eerie to have so many personal connections: a big brother who could bench-press a small automobile and who’d impose his will on you, a sister who threw up inside the car on a family outing, an almost pathological connection with wordplay (Steve discovered palindromes, spoonerisms and alliteration way before I did, while I was reciting the alphabet backwards at age 5… and yet they never tested me for dyslexia, which, like gluten allergies, did not yet exist in the 1970s), and a first basketball coach (for him, Jim Thomas, or Jamal Tahoma; for me, Sgt. Ted Lovick) who was the Jesus of Cool.

The only cultural touchstones I don’t think Steve tackled, and I’d have to go back and read it to be sure, were The Exorcist (terrified me) and Bigfoot (growing up mostly in New Jersey, my friends and I knew our chances of spotting Bigfoot were minute, but we always held out hope). Oh, and the Son of Sam, but that was more a tri-state area phenomenon, I guess.

Steve’s great advantage growing up, by the way, is the same one I had: He was blessed with the world’s greatest parents.

Finally, it’s surreal to read that Steve’s best friend growing up is now one of my closest friends (the husband of MH contributor Katie McCollow). Great read. Pick it up if you’re looking for a story of childhood, of the Seventies, of days when parents seemed more concerned with teaching you how to be an adult than with being your friend. I’m looking forward to reading the follow-up, Nights In White Castle.

Here Comes Amazon (Again)

Relax, Susie B. I think your Amazon (AMZN) stock is going to be just fine. MH Capital bought a lot more under $1,900, by the way. Yesterday morning CNBC’s Jim Cramer said he could see it being a $3,000 stock after all the coronavirus mess plays out (and when will that be???) but even right now, how could you not love it?

If you need to purchase any item for the next month or so that is not food, your options are severely limited. CostCo? Target? Walmart? Sure, but in all of those places you actually have to enter and deal with people. Amazon, well, is there any large business in America (unrelated to pizza delivery) that is more suited to exploit the coronavirus crisis?

And, by the way, why isn’t Amazon in pizza delivery already? Seems like a natural fit.

Heisman Winners Given The Heisman

A trio of Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks from the past decade, Marcus Mariota, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston, were all allowed to depart their respected teams in the past week with not even a “Don’t let the door hit your tail pad on the way out.”

Of the three, Newton has been the most successful, leading the Carolina Panthers to a Super Bowl berth five years ago (where he will be remembered for a moment of ignominy related to a fumble). Mariota has signed with the Las Vegas Raiders (yes, it’s odd to type that). Winston seems to be drawing no interest: I guess teams aren’t in love with interception-slinging dudes who have problematic character issues.

Nine of the past 10 Heisman Trophy winners are quarterbacks. The first five are no longer with their original franchises and at least one, Johnny Manziel, is no longer in the NFL. The most successful besides Newton, who was the NFL MVP in 2015, is Lamar Jackson, the reigning NFL MVP. The jury’s still out on Baker Mayfield (trending down) and rookie Kyler Murray (trending up).

The first overall pick in next month’s NFL draft? It will almost surely be the reigning Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Joe Burrow. There’s something about a Heisman passer that teams drafting first find irresistible. And sure, Burrow looks like the real deal. But here’s the truth: quarterbacks are almost never sure things. If you’re looking for a sure thing this spring, pick LB Isaiah Simmons, wideout Jerry Jeudy, or defensive tackle Derrick Brown (that’s right, we did not include Chase Young).