by John Walters

Starting Five

Love Is All Around

Even the New England Patriots knew they had no business beating the Jaguars (Jag-wires?) in the AFC Championship Game. Gronk left the game in the second quarter as birds chirped around his head, 40 year-old Tom Brady had 12 stitches in his throwing hand, and both coordinators, Josh McDaniels and Matt Patricia (above), are headed to greener pastures.

Then Dion Lewis fumbled at the end of a double pass play after a gain of 22 yards. Myles Jack stripped him of the ball. Jags led 20-10, early fourth quarter, with the ball. They could’ve put the Patriots away right then, pretty much put the dynasty to bed.

First guy to congratulate Brady? Number 34. What a teammate! pic.twitter.com/azXq3qgN43

— OurState_CSU (@OurStateCSU) January 21, 2018

They failed. If you have to point to one play, point to Brady converting a 3rd-and-18 when New England trailed 20-10 (that’s the same score Alabama trailed Georgia by in the 4th quarter of the NCG). Belichick and Brady will make their eighth Super Bowl appearance together. It’s as if Brady looked at the young Jags and barked, “The **** out of the way!”

And yes, even the zebras, who flagged New England ONCE yesterday, seemed in awe of this franchise.

2. Is Nate Silver Meaningless? (Spoiler Alert: Yes)

 

Big difference between win probability models (which still have the Jaguars as 2:1 favorites after that Patriots touchdown) and betting markets (which have it pretty much 50/50).

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) January 21, 2018

 Yesterday afternoon, after the New England Patriots scored a 4th quarter touchdown, self-proclaimed and ESPN-annointed probability guru Nate Silver posted the above tweet. I immediately, as is my habit, ripped it as meaningless (I guess I could’ve called it Fake News, but we’re all tired of it). Then one of Silver’s minions, an analytics dude, called me “innumerate.”

Here’s my point: the assumption that the factors that lead one to determine that the Jags, with a 20-17 lead at Foxborough in the 4th quarter of the AFC Championship game against Brady and Belichick, the assumption that any analytics prior to that moment are predictive of that moment, are absolute—how can I put it quantitatively?—horse sh*t.

The sport games, they involve people and emotions and certain teams reacting certain ways at certain moments. Moreover, unlike say a weather pattern or flipping a coin 100 times, the variables to this game are unique: they have never occurred before and will never occur again. To discount those variables and instead use cold analytics from, say, every NFL game the past 10 seasons when the visiting team held a 3-point lead midway through the fourth quarter, is to be so obtuse as to how sports work as to be a willful idiot.

New England won, of course, thereby “defying” Nate’s probability odds. But so what? That doesn’t make the outcome of the next game New England plays with high stakes any more or less likely. Because the conditions will not be anywhere near the same.

3. March-a, March-a, March-a

As females far and wide took to the streets Saturday for the second annual Women’s March, the curious coincidence of it being the first day of the government shutdown made everything just that much more poignant.

Meanwhile, the president was either being obtuse (there’s that word again) or simply trolling all the ladies:

 

Who wants to tell him? https://t.co/ZIWZvVkMCO

— Nancy Pelosi (@NancyPelosi) January 20, 2018

 

But at least he was “working hard” at his desk (notice all the paperwork and the high-tech gadgets):

4. Too Heil A Price

At the famed Barrett-Jackson auto show in Scottsdale this weekend, a 1939 Mercedes-Benz 770K Grosser Offener Tourenwagen that once served as the official vehicle for Adolf Hitler was put up for auction.

Someone bid $7 million for it, but that price failed to meet the undisclosed minimum that the seller had set for it. Had the car sold, the seller had promised that 10% of the proceeds would go to a Jewish human-rights organization. When sheikhs are spending $450 million for paintings, $7 million for the Fuhrer’s ride is a little low. You’ve got to bid more than that, Mr. Miller.

5. Sixty Shades of Gray

This report from the BBC was startling: Moscow, Russia, received a total of six minutes of sunshine for the entire month of December, 2017. Imagine that: If yo went to take a dump at the wrong moment you missed the only available sunlight of the entire month. Above, I imagine, is one of the brighter moments of last month.

Reserves

 

There should be a red zone channell for when ppl are roasting Adam Schefter pic.twitter.com/xVBjlvWI9W

— PFTCommenter (@PFTCommenter) January 21, 2018

Yes, but did Schefty undergo concussion protocol?

***

Manchester City has lost since we wrote about them being undefeated in EPL play earlier this month, but down in Spain F.C. Barcelona remains undefeated in La Liga. Barca is 17-3-0 after a 5-0 win at Real Betis.

****

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aQERftlJWz4

“I am Kristen Bell, and I am a narcissist” was the host’s best line from last night’s SAG awards. Three Billboards cleaned up again (Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Ensemble Cast) and please someone tell me that this film makes any sense to them. One example: the ex-military dude, whom we will later find out could not possibly be the suspect, enters the grieving mother’s curio shop and throws a cup at her head when he’s not the murderer and in fact doesn’t even live in that town??? That makes any sense, why? And this is like the 17th-most implausible thing that happens in this movie….

Music 101

In The Light

This haunting Led Zeppelin tune from 1975’s Physical Graffiti was used, nearly in full, to overlap the final five minutes of the first season of Netflix’s Mindhunter. If you’ve seen the show, this songs will stay with you for awhile.

Remote Patrol

Mindhunter

Netflix

Finished Season 1 and you MUST watch. A few reasons: the interview with Richard Speck, the final scene with Ed Kemper in the ICU unit, the interview with the Georgia tree trimmer/murderer, Anna Torv, and last but not least, the sense of foreboding every time the words “PARK CITY, KANSAS” appear onscreen.

This video is a good intro/companion to the series, if you’ve yet to watch.