Monthly Archives: March 2020

STARTING FIVE

by John Walters | Leave a comment

Tweet Me Right

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Starting Five

Vernal Viral

The coronavirus just cannot get out of the news. Thanks to the inter webs and a pathologically dishonest White House, the pathogen is not only free to spread but we can literally update ourselves on the human cost by the minute.

The illness is spreading —now officially in 34 states and if we only had enough testing kits, probably in all 50—while the Trump administration continues to insist we appreciate that their response has been “perfect.” And the markets are about to open 1,300.

This is exactly the type of worldwide phenomenon Bowie was referring to

By the way, 11 years ago tomorrow Mark Haines of CNBC famously called the “bottom” for the market in the sub-prime mortage crisis. Not today, though. Not for this crisis. Not today.

The Orwellian White House

Human life, yeah, that’s kind of a big deal. But what’s a much bigger deal at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue is to maintain the fiction that 1) the virus is no big deal and that 2) they’re on top of it. How many deaths is it going to take for President Trump to be able to look in the mirror and acknowledge that his arrogance at the outset of this outbreak only caused a lot more damage?

And what’s this all about? Is the president really this insecure? (Of course he is.)

This one will definitely be included in the Ken Burns’ 20-part series on the Trump presidency:

Kate And Liz On SNL

and…

For Goodness’ Snake

There were four XFL games this weekend, but the snapshot of the weekend is the above: fans in standing-room-only section for the D.C. Defenders spent the entire game fashioning a “beer snake” out of empties. By game’s end, the beer snake almost extended to the top row of the section. At one point league commissioner Oliver Luck even contributed a cup of his own.

The best moment came early in the second half as the brewery boa grew and a man stood on top of a railing and led the section in cheers of “U-S-A! U-S-A!” More fodder for the dystopian documentary.

Oil Plunges

Is it just me or does something about this photo seem unnatural, toxic and dystopian?

So Saudi Arabia and Russia could not come to an agreement on how to reduce production — i.e., to create an artificial scarcity of oil in order to maintain high prices— because the Russians would not agree to play nice. Or in this case, filthy.

So the Saudis announced that they were going to ramp up production, which means that oil prices are dropping precipitously, like 31%. Wait. Isn’t this good news for your family’s upcoming pilgrimage to Wally World?

I dunno. It sounds as if the people who traffic in oil futures and treasuries and 10-year yields and the type of stuff that we don’t quite understand (“Just buy Bitcoin! And Tesla! And Inovio!”) are concerned. We’ll have more info as soon as someone explains it all to us.

WHICH WILL BE THE LAST STATE TO REPORT A CORONAVIRUS CASE?

by John Walters | Leave a comment

https://twitter.com/jdubs88/status/1236782244913721346?s=20

As of Sunday night 33 states (Update: 34, add Iowa to the list) had reported at least one coronavirus diagnosis, with Washington still out in front with the most cases and deaths. The Evergreen State reports 141 cases and 18 deaths, far more in each category than any other state.

As of now there are 530 reported cases nationwide and 21 deaths.

So what will be the final state to report a coronavirus diagnosis? I’m wondering, and I know it’s morbid, if Las Vegas has a prop bet on this. Here are the states that have yet to be officially affected by coronavirus:

Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Delaware, Idaho, Louisiana, Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming.

My guess? Wyoming.

FILMS: THE FORTIES

by John Walters | Leave a comment

If it has Bogey, it’s must-see

For lack of any new inspiration, we’re going to go back and put together by-the-decade lists of our five favorite films from each year. It’s like having all your favorite recipes in one cook book. Or at least ours. We’ll begin with the 1940s (asterisks after the absolute can’t-miss films on the list):

1940

The Philadelphia Story*

His Girl Friday

The Grapes Of Wrath

The Great Dictator

Rebecca

1941

Citizen Kane

Sullivan’s Travels

The Maltese Falcon*

The Lady Eve

The Wolf man

1942

Casablanca*

Mrs. Miniver*

Now, Voyager

Woman Of The Year

Holiday Inn

1943

For Whom The Bell Tolls

The Ox-Bow Incident

Shadow Of A Doubt

The Life And Death Of Colonel Blimp

Lassie Come Home

1944

Double Indemnity*

Laura*

Miracle Of Morgan’s Creek/Hail The Conqueing Hero

To Have And Have Not

Gaslight

1945

Lost Weekend

Brief Encounter

Anchors Aweigh

Leave Her To Heaven*

Spellbound

1946

The Best Years Of Our Lives*

It’s A Wonderful Life*

Gilda

Notorious

My Darling Clementine

1947

The Bishop’s Wife

Out Of The Past

Black Narcissus

Miracle On 34th Street

Gentleman’s Agreement

1948

Key Largo*

Johnny Belinda

The Treasure of the Sierra Madre*

Mr. Blandings Builds His Dream House

Rope

1949

White Heat

Adam’s Rib

On The Town

She Wore A Yellow Ribbon

In The Good Ol’ Summertime

BIG WAVE INVESTING

by John Walters | 1 Comment

Big Wave surfing, where men and women of unbridled audacity careen down walls of ocean 50-feet tall or greater, has always fascinated me. The tightrope between exhilaration and terror. Between a natural high and death. I marvel at humans who don’t give a second thought to doing this.

In the past fortnight I’ve been thinking of big wave surfing a lot as I keep an eye on the stock market. And not having a full-time job at the moment, I have more of a chance to do so.

The market is in Big Wave territory right now. Most of the time you ride those small waves where the Dow rises or falls maybe as much as 300 points in one day. Roughly about 1% yay or nay. Your heart rate doesn’t spike at all.

But let’s look at what’s taken place in the past two weeks. Beginning on Friday, February 21, when the floor dropped out of the market—the Dow cratered nearly 1,000 points—there’s been a lot of whitewater and foam in the financials. In the past 10 trading days, including today, we’ve had FIVE sessions where the Dow dropped at least 800 points and TWO where it has risen at least 1,000 points.

Here’s the good (and bad) news: You can make a lot of money on either a big Dow drop or a big Dow gain day. And you can also lose a lot of money on either type of day. The waves are higher, but just because the Dow is falling precipitously doesn’t mean your portfolio must.

Take today. Shares of Inovio (INO), a Philly-based pharmaceutical, are up 50%… TODAY. In one day. The Dow is down nearly 750 points as I write this but Inovio is up 50%. That’s crazy. Since Monday when INO opened at $3.96 per share it has risen more than 250% to $14.65.

Great, so how are we supposed to know how to ride these waves?

Here’s what I’ve been doing. Feel free to disregard all this advice. In this volatile market, concerning yourself with fundamentals and the like on a day-to-day basis is folly. The coronavirus news/hysteria/panic drives the markets. If the day begins with the networks and/or CNBC hyperventilating about a new death in California or a milestone number of cases diagnosed across the globe, the market’s gonna tumble. And on those days, at least what I’ve been paying attention to, the following companies will see an uptick: Gilead (GILD), Moderna (MRNA), Clorox (CLX) and INO. Also, gold will do well. And often Bitcoin (easy access: GBTC).

On those days when the market is tired of being scared, you’ll see titans such as Amazon (AMZN) or Apple (AAPL) or United Health (UNH) rebound. It’s almost like a seesaw effect between the stocks in the previous paragraph and this one.

Now let’s imagine you are not a trader but instead a, sniff (holds pinky finger out while sipping tea) an investor. A long-term investor. That’s fine, daddy-o. But I’m here to make money. And when the waves are breaking like Mavericks in January, just sitting on your board out in a kelp bed is no way to really take advantage of the action.

Sure, this is one possible outcome

Is it safer? Sure. But if you can free up a lot of capital and take a chance on an INO when the market craters and hold it for two days, well, how many puny waves must one ride and for how many years before you could get a 250% return on investment? On a week like this you can do so in two days.

Is it a risk? Sure. Is it potentially, if not life-changing then at least fiscal year-changing? I think so. Sure, you might get pulled underwater and have a Mark Foo mishap. But you’ll never know what it’s like to ride a Big Wave unless you start paddling as it builds. Or at least get a tow from Laird Hamilton. The peril is real; but so is the potential for a great reward.

STARTING FIVE

by John Walters | 7 Comments

“With The Money He Spent He Could’ve Sent Every NYT Editorial Board Member To A Tutorial Session At Mathnasium”

Stupid is as stupid does. You have to love the graphics person who posted her name (“Mara Gay”) and position (NYT Editorial Board Member) immediately after she said, “It’s true.”

“We Need To Eliminate ObamaCare And Replace It With Something Exactly Like ObamaCare But Not Call It ObamaCare. Because, You Know, Racists Gonna Racist”*

*”But also, we’re not gonna replace it with anything at all because we’re no here to give people health care, we’re here to preserve the white wealth class and also to prop up the military while neglecting soldiers…“

Al Mighty

Rumore has it that ESPN is attempting to lure away, or “trade” NBC for Sunday Night Football play-by-play man Al Michaels. Also they’re trying to put Peyton Manning in the booth with him for Monday Night Football and are gonna toss Romo money at him.

Hmm. We’ll see. I’ve always watched football games, college and pro, based on who’s playing them and not who’s behind the mike. Sure, I loved Keith Jackson and Brent Musburger, but each was also calling big games… because they were the best at what they did. Michaels is as deft as anyone in sports today, but he also usually gets the premier NFL matchup of the week. And ESPN’s MNF offering usually feels like the leftover after NBC’s SNF game. I wouldn’t put that all on Joe Tessitore and Booger.

Of course, if ESPN is able to land Michaels, could NBC pair a father-son booth of Collinsworth & Collinsworth now that Jac has signed on with the Peacock?

Help Me Understand This About The Coronavirus

Let’s say you’re under 75 years old (sorry, Susie B.). You have a bit of the sniffles, maybe you’re sneezing and even coughing. You feel sick. Why on God’s green Earth would you take yourself to a hospital and ask to be tested for coronavirus other than out of some need to want to post it on InstaGram for the “likes?”

–There’s no vaccine. So testing positive for coronavirus doesn’t mean that you’re going to be given an anti-venom and be suddenly cured.

–You’re going to cost yourself at least a couple thousand dollars.

–Hospitals are filled with two things we cannot stand: 1) sick people and 2) paper work.

–Your chances of dying are probably in the 1% range.

–All in all, you’re better off staying in bed for two weeks and finally binge-watching Peaky Blinders.

Am I missing something here?

We Are Spartacus


Finally knocked Spartacus off the must-see list last night (and early this morning). Here’s what stuck with us: a film released 60 years ago about an era of history two millennia ago is incredibly timely this very minute.

See, there’s a scourge of slaves loose in what is now present-day Italy and all they wanna do is get the hell out of the Appian Way, cross the Mediterranean and return to their respective sh*thole countries. But Rome doesn’t want to set a precedent (that a 16 seed can take down a 1 seed), never mind that these slaves exist solely to give their lives for the entertainment of Romans (“Stick to sports, Kaep!”).

But here’s where the film becomes prescient and timely. Rome is a Republic. But one of the consuls, Crassus (Sir Laurence Olivier), convinces the Senate that he must be put in charge (“A dictatorship,” one senator, Graces (played by Charles Laughton) protests. And Crassus replies, “Order.”

As in law and order. As in, sure, democracy and freedom is all well and good, but when things get dicey we need to throw all of that out the window and employ authoritarianism. And then Crassus said something about looking the other way when MIB murders a WaPo journalist and chops him into little pieces. Or maybe it was late and I was tired. Who can recall?

Also, Jean Simmons gets naked—twice! And she’s not even wearing her KISS makeup.