BIG WAVE INVESTING

https://mediumhappi.org/?p=8563

Big Wave surfing, where men and women of unbridled audacity careen down walls of ocean 50-feet tall or greater, has always fascinated me. The tightrope between exhilaration and terror. Between a natural high and death. I marvel at humans who don’t give a second thought to doing this.

In the past fortnight I’ve been thinking of big wave surfing a lot as I keep an eye on the stock market. And not having a full-time job at the moment, I have more of a chance to do so.

The market is in Big Wave territory right now. Most of the time you ride those small waves where the Dow rises or falls maybe as much as 300 points in one day. Roughly about 1% yay or nay. Your heart rate doesn’t spike at all.

But let’s look at what’s taken place in the past two weeks. Beginning on Friday, February 21, when the floor dropped out of the market—the Dow cratered nearly 1,000 points—there’s been a lot of whitewater and foam in the financials. In the past 10 trading days, including today, we’ve had FIVE sessions where the Dow dropped at least 800 points and TWO where it has risen at least 1,000 points.

Here’s the good (and bad) news: You can make a lot of money on either a big Dow drop or a big Dow gain day. And you can also lose a lot of money on either type of day. The waves are higher, but just because the Dow is falling precipitously doesn’t mean your portfolio must.

Take today. Shares of Inovio (INO), a Philly-based pharmaceutical, are up 50%… TODAY. In one day. The Dow is down nearly 750 points as I write this but Inovio is up 50%. That’s crazy. Since Monday when INO opened at $3.96 per share it has risen more than 250% to $14.65.

Great, so how are we supposed to know how to ride these waves?

Here’s what I’ve been doing. Feel free to disregard all this advice. In this volatile market, concerning yourself with fundamentals and the like on a day-to-day basis is folly. The coronavirus news/hysteria/panic drives the markets. If the day begins with the networks and/or CNBC hyperventilating about a new death in California or a milestone number of cases diagnosed across the globe, the market’s gonna tumble. And on those days, at least what I’ve been paying attention to, the following companies will see an uptick: Gilead (GILD), Moderna (MRNA), Clorox (CLX) and INO. Also, gold will do well. And often Bitcoin (easy access: GBTC).

On those days when the market is tired of being scared, you’ll see titans such as Amazon (AMZN) or Apple (AAPL) or United Health (UNH) rebound. It’s almost like a seesaw effect between the stocks in the previous paragraph and this one.

Now let’s imagine you are not a trader but instead a, sniff (holds pinky finger out while sipping tea) an investor. A long-term investor. That’s fine, daddy-o. But I’m here to make money. And when the waves are breaking like Mavericks in January, just sitting on your board out in a kelp bed is no way to really take advantage of the action.

Sure, this is one possible outcome

Is it safer? Sure. But if you can free up a lot of capital and take a chance on an INO when the market craters and hold it for two days, well, how many puny waves must one ride and for how many years before you could get a 250% return on investment? On a week like this you can do so in two days.

Is it a risk? Sure. Is it potentially, if not life-changing then at least fiscal year-changing? I think so. Sure, you might get pulled underwater and have a Mark Foo mishap. But you’ll never know what it’s like to ride a Big Wave unless you start paddling as it builds. Or at least get a tow from Laird Hamilton. The peril is real; but so is the potential for a great reward.

One thought on “BIG WAVE INVESTING

  1. All real Big Kahunas use options. COWABUNGA!

    As for this “pinky-out investor”, 2 more of my Limit orders were filled today. Unfortunately, the stuff I WANT to buy the most have barely budged. But the way things are going, I’m going to finally get those elusive additional DIS shares in a few weeks. (Also, I just found out the rich pay $750/hour (7 hours minimum) for VIP Tours at the Disney parks & go to the “front of the line” for everything – i.e. no waiting! On one hand, this ticks me off, on the other, if these folks want to throw money at one of my dividend-paying holdings, the step right up & open those wallets wide!)

    Good luck, jdubs & Hang 10, 20, 30 or more. 🙂

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