by Chris Corbellini
Week 6 Picks: Put this in the team suggestion box …
It may not happen this week, it may not happen this season, it may not happen ever, but at some point, shouldn’t an NFL defensive coordinator try a 4-3 defense without the “3” part of the alignment … and just field all defensive backs?
That thought no doubt ticked off all of the linebackers out there. Current of former, you know who you are. Nobody makes plays like you. That is the nature of the linebacker position: To inflict pain. To dislodge things. To make the prom queen cry. To set the tempo to 11 and hit through ballcarriers as if they were looking past them to a point in the distance. Linebackers don’t just do the dirty work, they are the dirty. If someone suggested an all-safety or all-corner alignment to Dick Butkus, that someone would’ve been thrown through a window and then paid the team fine on Dick’s behalf. If someone had ever suggested it to Ray Lewis, Ray may have called for a team exorcism to rid that man of his demons.
Much respect to the Backers. To the Sams. To the Mikes. To the Wills. OK? I want to put that out there.
So, why am I suggesting changing what’s always been? Why wake all the grizzly bears?
Well, the thought of a no-linebacker defense on every down occurred to me as rookie running back Saquon Barkley single-handedly tore up the defending Super Bowl champion Eagles on Thursday night. It was if the Giants and Barkley were in two different games: The rest of the G-Men belly-flopped into a shallow kiddie pool of mediocrity and lost their game, while Barkley won every battle and one-on-one challenge the Eagles threw at him in another. In open space, no Eagles linebacker stood a chance.
So why not cover the open spaces with a guy just as fast as Barkley? Why not choose closing speed and ball-hawking skills, above all?
Yes, Todd Gurley won the Rams-Seahawks game last week between the tackles (with 3 TDs), but that is a rarity for him. Gurley’s version of a handoff is often a dump-off. So is Alvin Kamara’s. So is James White’s. Christian McCaffrey, too. Perhaps talents like Marshall Faulk and Roger Craig, both boasting 1,000-1,000 seasons, were just ahead of their time. Every dump-off I see now I think it: runner-receivers, or more precisely receiver-runners, are the new NFL.
Barkley, Kamara, White, and McCaffrey are all in the top 30 in receptions this season. Barkley, Kamara, Gurley, Zeke Elliott, Melvin Gordon, James Conner, and McCaffrey are in the top 15 of all-purpose yardage, too. I envision more running backs joining them in both categories by season’s end. So, why not field your top two pass rushers at the ends, two 330-pound lane cloggers at the tackles, and then get creative at LB, putting fearless defensive backs like Tyrann Mathieu and Earl Thomas in those spots, and fielding the usual starters at corner and safety. All the men who can’t be out-run in open space.
If you have that type of talent, why not build around it?
Now, you certainly can’t pull off such an alignment for an entire season. I’m not suggesting the zone blitz here. Just last week, for example, the Atlanta Falcons and their quick/slender linebackers were bullied by rhino James Conner and the Steelers. But an All-DB 4-3 defense could fluster a team that relies on a receiver-runner. Why not give it a shot for a series. See if it sticks.
It’ll be cool when Belichick tries it someday, in an AFC divisional game or something.
Onto the picks. Home team in caps, with William Hill odds (as of Friday afternoon)
TEXANS (-10) over Bills
DeAndre Hopkins’ long catch in OT last week will stay with these Texans for months to come. The offense now has the confidence that comes with beating a desperate opponent, on the road, and that defense is officially in hunting mode. At 2-3, they are not out of this. So, hey, you know, good to see you, Buffalo. Be sure to visit the gift shop at GB International and get yourself something nice on the flight back to rebuilding town.
I’m playing “House of the Rising Sun” as I type this, and set to such a doomsday tune, it’s easy for me to envision Houston’s D putting one QB after another in a hurt freezer the rest of the year. In montage format, naturally. Just one Watt/Clowney sack after the next, all Scorsese-like (Related: I used to edit football highlights to music for a living, and I still think this way, though I am no Scorsese). The Texans D have not played to their potential yet, and can’t cover tight ends, but … the hurt is coming. This week.
Bears (-3.5) over DOLPHINS
I’m still a little awestruck by the game film of Chicago’s 48-10 hammering of Tampa Bay in Week 4. Even if the line had been -6.5, I would have considered it. Maybe Vegas just accounted for the South Beach Flu … an affliction that can be wildly contagious amongst pro athletes.
Clubs or no, the Bears defense leads the league in sacks per game (ooh, analytics!), and just enjoyed a fun little bye week, likely spending that free time high-fiving each other for landing Khalil Mack. Meanwhile, the Dolphins o-line is a hot mess. Starting left guard Josh Sitton and center Daniel Kilgore are out for the year, and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil (concussion) is not a certainty to play on Sunday.
While watching the film I really liked the way this Bears D was ready to pounce, pre-snap. They looked hungry. I’d then stay on Mack when the ball actually was snapped, only to marvel at someone else making a killer play against the Bucs. OK, OK, I see you, Chicago.
PACKERS (-9.5) over 49ers
The Packers are an especially-f-cking-weird 2-2-1, and yeah, they want to not look that weird anymore. They want the coaching staff to not be second-guessed on every series, and to not have fans and experts believe they are an Aaron Rodgers solo act.
A resounding win at Lambeau on Monday Night Football could do it.
I want to see what Mike Pettine’s defense has in store for the 49ers this week. Behind the scenes he’s your classic defensive wise-ass, needling star offensive players whenever he can and pushing buttons across the organization whenever he can, even amongst his coaches (OK, especially amongst his coaches). Playing lighter and fiercer is a tricky thing to pull off, but I’ve seen Pettine do it with the New York Jets. So, what will Pettine ask of his defense this week against a short-handed Niners offense? Will he ask for a Pick-6 of C.J. Beathard? A shutout? Will he throw some money behind those asks? It’s certainly in play. The entire franchise wants to look decisive in front of all of those stock-holders.
Steelers (+2) over BENGALS
I wanted to go Falcons here (-3 vs. Bucs), but that match-up is far more intriguing for fantasy purposes. No, I’m trying to get Big Ben’s turnovers on the road out of my head (Cleveland in Week 1 springs to mind), and focus on the positives in life … like Conner gnashing between the tackles, and Antonio Brown’s 47-yard touchdown catch in the fourth quarter last week.
This one could be a 10-7 final, with the announcers playing along with that “Who would have guessed this with all these playmakers!” explanation point at the finish — a result that’ll make you shake your head when they see each other again in the playoffs, because it’ll be a pick-‘em, with one play ultimately deciding it either way. My gut tells me Conner will be that difference-maker in Cinci this time, but just barely. According to Pro Football Focus, the Bengals rank 26th against running backs in the pass game.
Hmmm. Maybe Cincinnati should try fielding an DB-heavy 4-3 alignment …
Last week: 1-3
Season: 5-12