The Oscars were televised three weeks ago — in case you haven’t heard (I think Captain Phillips swept every category– “I am the captain NOW!”). Anyway, Medium Happy’s resident film critic, of both Hollywood films and NFL Films, Chris Corbellini, did me a solid by penning his Oscar picks, only I was in a strange land without digital media, and when I returned, of course, I’d forgotten about it.

Because I’m scatterbrained and self-absorbed.

Anyway, it’s just as good a read now, and I promise I haven’t tampered with any of Chris’ picks. So here you are, a post facto Oscars preview, via the future screenwriter and showrunner of “Piranhakeets“, Chris Corbellini  (does the Kermit “Yaaaaaaaaaaay!” while clapping wildly).

Somewhere Over Gravity’s Rainbow

By Chris Corbellini

In case you didn’t feel like shelling out a cool $47,000 a year on film school, here’s one of the first lessons in writing for dramatic arts: There’s a three-act structure, and it goes like so …

Act One—get your hero character up a tree.

Act Two—throw stones/rocks at him or her, and…

Act Three—get him or her down.

By that pure, lean, storytelling standard, a standard to go by when judging deeply personal pieces of cinema all over the map, the best films of 2013 are 12 Years a Slave, American Hustle, and Gravity. Of the three, I’d go with the movie that follows that arc almost literally — steely Sandra Bullock raging against the dying of the light before plummeting through Earth’s atmosphere. All those rocks thrown at the lead (a tragic backstory, orbiting projectiles, fireballs, some seriously clingy seaweed), coupled with groundbreaking special effects and sound work, should be enough to beat out the rest of this year’s contenders for Best Picture. Will it win?

I have a nagging suspicion it won’t.

The prestige picture in the room may win out over mastery of the medium.

More to come on that below. Remember that while the Oscar ceremony celebrates artists, it is also a telecast of losing artists stuck in their seats with no place to go. The winners shimmy off-stage to strategize with agents and later use a chic Beverly Hills hotel as their personal dance floor, liquor cabinet, and ash tray. The rest must sit through the broadcast wondering why it didn’t happen for them. I look forward to spotting the evening’s finest fake smile (Julia Roberts, I’m looking in your general direction).

On to the statuettes…

SOUND EDITING All is Lost, Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit, Lone Survivor

The winner: Gravity

The skinny: Think of this category, this go-around anyway, as one simple question: What does ____ sound like? Who had the toughest challenge answering that question? Captain Phillips had the sea … the slap of boots on steel stairs, the whirring engines of the pirate boats, the spray of ocean water, and the thump of the waves on the skiff at the end as the U.S. Military closed in. For that, it deserves the silver. Gravity’s opening title card says there’s no sound in space. So the sound editors knew the audience would be keyed into that from frame one. That’s a challenge. It’s still an admirable work of audio, voices in the dark, and silence.

(Actual winner: Gravity)

VISUAL EFFECTS Gravity, The Hobbit, Iron Man 3, The Lone Ranger, Star Trek Into Darkness

The winner: Gravity.

The skinny: Child, please. Just re-visit the opening shot of the movie.

(Winner: Gravity)

FILM EDITING American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, 12 Years a Slave

The winner: Captain Phillips

The skinny: Editor Christopher Rouse wowed the movie business with his work on the Bourne movies (herky-jerky, kinetic, somehow it all makes sense), so this won’t surprise anyone in the room. He wins Oscar by building the tension with his famed quick cuts through to the inevitable conclusion (just look at this shot of the life boat escape), and then had the good sense to go against his creative instincts and let Tom Hanks’ tearful medical look-over play out in a long shot to finish the movie.

(Winner: Gravity)

ORIGINAL SCORE The Book Thief, Gravity, Her, Philomena, Saving Mr. Banks

The winner: Gravity

The skinny: When Bullock pierces the atmosphere towards our little bright blue ball, Gravity’s score lifts us up. It’s heavenly, amidst heavenly bodies. In a film where natural sound is minimal at best, the music bed had to wrap itself around the stars, and the movie stars themselves. I think it did.

(Winner: Gravity)

ORIGINAL SONG Happy, Let It Go, The Moon Song, Ordinary Love

The winner: “Let It Go”

The skinny: I wonder if the inevitable Karaoke version will have sections of its movie “Frozen” in it, or the standard shots of a couple walking on the beach at sunset?

(Winner: Adele Dazeem)

PRODUCTION DESIGN American Hustle, Gravity, The Great Gatsby, Her, 12 Years a Slave

The winner: Gravity

The skinny: Gatsby was appropriately opulent, the way a Gatsby party should be. It also looked cartoonish in spots. I’ll give Gravity the nod on technical achievement. They built space stations worthy of the best of 2001: A Space Odyssey, then the director blasted them into fiery pieces.

(Winner: The Great Gatsby)

CINEMATOGRAPHY The Grandmaster, Gravity, Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, Prisoners

The winner: Gravity

The skinny: Roger Deakins’ work on Prisoners could pull off the upset. But of all the nominees listed here, Gravity deserves to be seen on the big screen. It’s an immersive experience.

(The winner: Gravity)

COSTUME DESIGN American Hustle, The Grandmaster, The Great Gatsby, The Invisible Woman, 12 Years a Slave

The winner: American Hustle

The skinny: Let’s give it up for the folks who poured Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams into those dresses.

(Winner: The Great Gatsby)

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Dallas Buyers Club, Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa, The Lone Ranger

The winner: Dallas Buyers Club

The skinny: Admittedly not even close to an expert in this category, but a motion picture featuring strong performances to go with the wrapping paper of wigs/makeup should win out over a straight-up comedy, and a straight-up joke of a tentpole summer feature.

(Winner: Dallas Buyers Club)
SOUND MIXING Captain Phillips, Gravity, The Hobbit, Inside Llewyn Davis, Lone Survivor

The winner: Gravity

The skinny: Mixing is an art, meshing and leveling all those audio tracks into one perfect symphony, and knowing when to raise one sound over the rest. There are a lot of worthy contenders here. Smaug’s voice in The Hobbit is chilling exactly when it needs to be. Anytime you have a quality film involving music like Inside Llewyn Davis, it should be in the conversation. Captain Phillips and Lone Survivor accurately depict the clangs and shrieks of chaos. Still, Gravity has that one moment where all the alarms of a space pod are rendered silent as an astronaut returns to visit another. It stays silent for some time, and you wait for the sound, any sound … and keep waiting well after the hatch is closed, until finally the alarm fades up and you can breathe again. Forty seconds later. I also loved how Bullock’s labored breath dominates from there, with Clooney much more relaxed, and it’s seamless. That’s not an accident.

(Winner: Gravity)

Now, on to the Sexy Awards…

BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE Christian Bale (American Hustle), Bruce Dern (Nebraska), Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave), Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club)

The winner: Matthew McConaughey

The skinny: Walking out of 12 Years a Slave, I thought Chiwetel Ejiofor was a lock for this. I even tweeted “A movie of a 1,000 horrors demands a lead capable of a 1,000 faces” – which is what he conveys. He also admirably underplays moments while Michael Fassbender and Lupita Nyong’o swing for the fences beyond the fences. But this is McConaughey’s MVP season. Maybe he gets two steps closer to an EGOT and wins an Emmy for “True Detective” as well. Five years ago, I thought Wooderson was destined to play opposite a tanned Kate Hudson in two-star romantic comedies destined for the February release dust bin. Instead, he wins a little golden dude for this role, put up an admirable effort in  Mud, stars in a hit HBO series, and stole a scene from DiCaprio in Wolf of Wall Street. It must be said: Alright, Alright, Alright.

(Winner: His hero 10 years ago)

BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE Amy Adams (American Hustle), Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Sandra Bullock (Gravity), Judi Dench (Philomena), Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

The winner: Cate Blanchett

The skinny: Blanchett does terrific work with a detestable character — she hammers home the point that the rich from New York City truly think they are better than us, even while in the process of crumbling into little pieces. Also, amidst all that character actor talent, and Sally Hawkins, who was nominated for Best Supporting Actress herself, Blanchett played off Andrew Dice Clay best. She can find chemistry with anyone. Aside from maybe Adams, I can’t see anyone else in this group giving Dice a chance to really shine in such a pivotal moment. Bullock has a shot here too. Beyond the showy and tearful confessions, all that blue screen wire work demanded the timing and precise movements not unlike a ballerina. Every move had a purpose.

(Winner: Cate on a Hot Tin Roof)
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips), Bradley Cooper (American Hustle), Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave), Jonah Hill (The Wolf of Wall Street), Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

The winner: Jared Leto

The skinny: Fassbender conjures up evil. He’s a twister of sweaty bitterness and self-loathing. Still, Leto’s got all the momentum for his turn as a drug addict and AIDS patient.

(Winner: Jordan Catalano)

(Edtor’s Note: Bobby Cannavele, in Blue Jasmine, got screwed here. At worst, deserved a nomination).

BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine), Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle), Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)

The winner: Lupita Nyong’o

The skinny: A two-gal race between Lawrence and Nyong’o. Ms. Katniss Everdeen was funny (Science oven!) and her one moment of vulnerability in the movie is breathtaking to watch (“I don’t like change. It’s really hard for me. Sometimes I think that I’ll die before I change.”), but the image I can’t shake is the mist of blood from Nyong’o’s back as she was being whipped. Halfway into the picture I wondered “Wait, who is this actress?” I’m sure I’m not the only one.

(Winner: Nyong’o)

 Note: the character upon whom Lawrence’s Rosalyn Rosenfeld is based, Marie Weinberg, was found hanged to death only weeks after she went to the press claiming her husband had profited from AbScam. Murder? Suicide? Also, she was 50 years old.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY American Hustle, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska

The winner: American Hustle

The skinny: A good argument for Her in this category is that as good as American Hustle was, a lot of it was improvised. The scene where Bale confronts Lawrence in their bedroom after he was nearly killed by mobsters in a car? Made up on the set. How do you reward a script the highest of honors when pages were tossed aside for spur-of-the-moment reactions? Still, I’m guessing Academy voters won’t care. The crowd-pleaser does have the best line of the year: “The art of survival is a story that never ends.” That should do it.

(Winner: Her)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

The winner: 12 Years a Slave

The skinny: Before Midnight deserves it, but as Clint Eastwood once said “Deserve’s got nothing to do with it.” There is some Oscar history here: Before Sunset, the second and best of the Julie Delpy and Ethan Hawke walking and talking trilogy, was also nominated in this category in 2005, but lost to Sideways. A period piece will top Midnight this go-around. Looking at the hard-earned casualness of their three-picture work though, here’s hoping Delpy, Hawke and director Richard Linklater will continue this series every nine years. This one was angry, a great romance wilting under the strains of marriage. The hypothetical fourth movie, when both are 50, could arc in a lot of different directions, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Celine and Jesse are divorced and find a common ground for the sake of their family.

(Winner: 12 Years a Slave)
ANIMATED FEATURE The Croods, Despicable Me 2, Ernest & Celestine, Frozen, The Wind Rises

The winner: Frozen

The skinny: One of the easier categories to handicap. 

(Winner: Frozen)

BEST DIRECTOR David O. Russell (American Hustle), Alfonso Cuaron (Gravity), Alexander Payne (Nebraska), Steve McQueen (12 Years a Slave), Martin Scorsese (Wolf of Wall Street)

The winner: Alfonso Cuaron

The skinny: When you spend six months in darkened edit bays collaborating with creatives that work or worked with actual Hollywood directors, you pick up some interesting gossip and a deeper understanding of what pros like about other pros. Something I learned — OK, confirmed — about director David O. Russell, from his friend: He’s completely insane and almost untethered to the reality that the rest of us live in. But the man knows story, and pulls or yanks the very best out of his cast. In another year, he wins this. But Cuaron did something magical with Gravity. He won’t win Best Picture, but when you wow everyone in your industry like Gravity did (and judging by the folks I talked to, he did), you pick up Best Director. Ang Lee won best director for the spectacle Life of Pi last year, and I see Cuaron doing the same in 2014.

(Winner: Cuaron)

BEST PICTURE American Hustle, Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Gravity, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, 12 Years a Slave, The Wolf of Wall Street

The winner: 12 Years a Slave

The skinny: Back to the three-act structure and the tree. I thought American Hustle got the two lovers down to safety a little too cleanly. I was waiting for the body count.  I enjoyed Hustle the most out of all the movies I watched in 2013. But it was not the best movie. Meanwhile, Gravity saw Bullock climb down to safety, enduring every imaginable life-threatening scenario to get there. In my opinion, it’s the great movie of this field. But 12 Years a Slave hits your psyche again and again like a folding chair to your back, and when Solomon finally reunites with his family, after all those agonizing moments and that devastating burned up letter, it’s an earned moment. I think the Academy will reward that.

(Winner: 12 Years a Slave)

If you were counting, Corbs went 15 for 19.

I’m going to go ahead and give him 16 for 20, since I admire his taste and am certain he would’ve chosen The Great Beauty, which may have been my favorite overall film of 2013, for Best Foreign Picture.