The story filed by ESPN.com’s Mark Schlabach late Wednesday evening casts the Jameis Winston alleged sexual assault situation in an entirely new light. As Schlabach writes in his report, the chances of the DNA found in the complainants’ underwear belonging to someone other than Jameis Winston are one in 2.2 trillion. Just a reminder that there are approximately 7 billion people on earth, which is about one/270th of 2.2 trillion. In other words, it’s his. So what does that mean?
— It is not at all unreasonable to presume that Winston and the complainant were in sexual contact on the date in question, December 7, 2012. While that may not be a 100% certainty, it is in no way outlandish to presume that. This may seem overtly self-evident, but it’s important to note the wiggle room between beyond a reasonable doubt and 100% sure in terms of this new revelation and the probability of a sexual act.
— The next step for Winston, if his attorney, Tim Jansen, consents that he speak with investigators is to tell them that this was consensual sex. The next step for investigators is to attempt to speak with Winston and also with his roommate, whom I presume was also a freshman football player. The complainant alleges that he witnessed the attack.
–As state attorney for the 2nd Judicial Court William Meggs told Schlabach, “There are two kinds of evidence, testimonial and physical.” They’ve got the physical evidence they need to make this a case worth pursuing further. Testimonial evidence, i.e. the interview with Winston’s roommate, will provide the next piece to the puzzle.
–As comedian Louis C.K. would say, “Of course, OF COURSE….” justice is the paramount value here. Justice for both Winston and for the accuser. Of course. What that is, at the moment, is too soon to know. What I do know is that Seminole fans who want to question the timing of newspapers seeking police reports for an “open and inactive” case nearly a year after the alleged crime occurred are now, by dint of that new piece of evidence, missing the point entirely.
–Again, Seminole fans will be quick to point out that the complainant originally identified her alleged assailant as being five-foot-ten or thereabouts. Winston is six-foot-four. And again, the DNA evidence trumps her poor sense of evaluating height. It trumps her eyewitness description. It’s there. On the underwear. That trumps everything.
–Whatever agenda anyone may believe the complainant and her family have, or the Tampa Bay Times has, or even Detective Scott Angulo and the Tallahassee Police Dept. may have, is entirely irrelevant. Entirely. There is DNA matching Winston’s on the woman’s underwear, underwear that was turned over to investigators within 24 hours of the alleged incident. That fact trumps perceived agendas.
–It’s too soon, at least for me, to scapegoat Angulo and the TPD. There’s a very good chance that a compassionate detective might have advised the complainant and her attorney what pursuing such charges going forward might involve. You can portray his words as a threat, as the complainant’s attorney and today’s stories have, or you can portray them as avuncular advice. I don’t know–yet. I’m willing to give Angulo and the TPD the benefit of the doubt for now.
–Winston met with football media on Wednesday who were told that questions about the case were off-limits (if only T.J. Simers attended Florida State pressers). This, of course, was before news of the DNA evidence had leaked. A subdued but sincere Winston told reporters, “I don’t want to lose any (Heisman) voters.”
–But now Winston likely has lost them, at least lost enough of them to lose this race (again, I return to Louis C.K., “Of course, OF COURSE that is not what is paramount here…”). Unless a new piece of information comes out in the coming days -and it certainly could –that leads us to question the character or the emotional stability of the complainant, or if some revelatory information about her or about their relationship comes to light, most Heisman voters will back off. Remember, Manti Te’o finished second in the Heisman voting last December and THEN we all found out about Lennay Kekua and voters expressed remorse about having put the Notre Dame linebacker on their ballots. Te’o’s darkest crime was pulling a “Lars and the Real Girl” on the college football cognoscenti. This would be far worse, if true.
–From reading Schlabach’s piece and from watching SportsCenter, it sounds as if a judgment as to whether to arrest Winston and charge him with a felony or to dismiss the charges would probably happen within a week or two. Before the Florida game on November 30? Perhaps not. Before the ACC Championship Game the following Saturday? Probably.
–I spoke with Brett McMurphy, also of ESPN.com, for my podcast, The Grotto, earlier on Wednesday. Again, before the DNA news. Still, Brett broached a salient point (“Of course, OF COURSE…!”) and that is this: in 2013, the final year of the BCS, the top two teams in the BCS Standings advance to the BCS Championship Game. With or without the redshirt freshman quarterback from Bessemer, Ala. the Seminoles would be headed to Pasadena if they finish No. 1 or No. 2 in the BCS Standings, which they most certainly will if they win out…which they most certainly will do.
HOWEVER, next year a human panel will decide which four teams advance. And this is where a committee could decide, if Winston were to be suspended from the team indefinitely, that a Seminole team without a true quarterback is no longer one of the four best teams in the country. Kind of how Cincinnati went from No. 1 in the nation to an NCAA tourney No. 2 seed once the Bearcats lost their star, Kenyon Martin. Interesting wrinkle, and just something to consider.
–Finally, the Winston story is just one more example of what a long and bizarre journey just a single college football season can be. Back on Labor Day weekend the only two players on everyone’s lips were Johnny Manziel and Jadeveon Clowney. Then Winston, who to be fair was well-known as a prodigy, was brilliant in his college debut in prime-time at Pittsburgh. Not only was he a superior athlete and a precocious quarterback, but his charisma was immediately apparent. And that poise was only magnified after the Clemson beat down. Talking to the ESPN crew afterward, Winston was humble, passionate, engaged and joyful. Impossible not to like.
And he very well may be that same person. Or he may be that same person who committed an ugly crime. Time will tell. But this affair is not about to subside any time soon. This isn’t about signing helmets and footballs in a hotel room in Connecticut. This is a felony. Buckle up, it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Speaking very generally, a prosecutor usually will proceed with an indictment if he or she has 1) a victim who reported the incident immediately and is willing to testify, and 2) some corroborating physical evidence, like DNA. Both are apparently present here, although the victim’s supposed refusal to cooperate for several months affects her credibility.
What differentiates this matter from most “he said/she said” disputes over consent is the apparent presence of witnesses. Winston’s attorney says there are two witnesses who have provided affidavits in his favor. Is one of these witnesses the roommate who allegedly saw the incident? If so, that would usually make a prosecutor more reluctant to seek an indictment in a close case.
Note that the roommate may himself face criminal charges if he witnessed a sexual assault and failed to either intervene or report it afterward. If that is the case, he will not be likely to cooperate with the police without a promise of immunity.
So, what you’re saying is that for Famous-inching-towards-Infamous Jameis & all FSU fans, Dec 7, 2012 may be a “date that will live in infamy”? Of course, of course, that is not funny! Sorry, can’t help myself. Maybe you can relate.
Anyway, it seems the girl’s attorney is blaming her “refusal to cooperate” on the supposed “warning” of the police detective. Of course, of course he would, otherwise her original claim & lack of pressing the case look suspicious.
Excluding the possibility that Winston’s DNA got onto those panties some other way (& hey, I’ve seen weirder things on Dateline & 48 Hours almost every week), here are the possible scenerios : consensual sober sex, ‘consensual’ drunk sex, sober sexual assault, girl too drunk/semi-conscious to say no & Winston (or ANY male) too stupid or arrogant to stop getting what he wanted & thus assault, drunk girl says ‘no’ but sexual assault takes place. (I suppose Winston could have been drunk & the girl “had her way with him” with or without the intent to later claim rape but since he’s pretty damn big & strong, he’d have to have been reaaallllly drunk.)
Unless there is more physical evidence than the DNA (i.e. bruising, tearing, other cuts, etc), or eyewitnesses/video testifying to the alleged assault, don’t see how this will be anything other than ‘He said/She said’. And based on how those cases are adjudicated around this country, even those NOT involving famous star athletes, I’d say the chances for conviction are slim. Hell, even when the assault is TAPED & put on the internet, conviction is rare.
Bumpy ride is right.
‘Lennay Kekua’ is looking better & better all the time…
Come onnnnn, “infamous…Dec 7…..infamy”? Nuthin? Sigh.