THE BATTLE OF BRITAIN

Two nights and tens of thousands of dollars ago I was watching a Netflix documentary on World War II. I believe it’s called “World War II In Color.” On Wednesday night I watched episode 2, which is all about the Battle of Britain.

As you probably know, Hitler’s plan was to use the Luftwaffe, the most formidable air force the world had yet seen, to take out British air planes and air fields, which would then make it easier for Germany to launch a full-scale invasion of troops from across the English Channel. That was the initial plan.

But things never go exactly the way you plan in warfare. The German plan was not to hit London, to preserve the city. But then one wayward bomber hit an East End neighborhood, killing nine or so civilians. England responded by bombing Berlin. The Nazis and Hitler were so incensed that they declared all bets off: London was on the table.

Now I bring all of this up because all of a sudden life changed dramatically for what was, arguably, the most civilized city in the world. Right up there at the time with New York and Paris. Children were sent on train up north. Citizens slept in subway tunnels because the Germans quickly learned that they were much more effective if they bombed London in night.

For weeks on end, German planes bombed London, creating giant infernos and mountains of debris (see above). I’ve thought about this a lot the past two days. Yes, for us this coronavirus is a relative hardship (No XFL!) and it sucks not having March Madness. But, fortunately, for most of us this is simply an inconvenience. And maybe we’ve lost some of our savings. But, again for most of us, this isn’t life or death.

I was touched in particular by one scene in the doc. The morning after a bombing raid a shopkeeper is sweeping the sidewalk in front of his store, even though there’s debris everywhere around. He doesn’t care. It’s important to him to do the job that needs to be done. And that’s his job. No one felt sorry for themselves.

Now, a big reason why London not only overcame this direct attack on its existence and that Londoners soldiered through it so admirably was, as you know, Winston Churchill. The prime minister. Hitler had expected England to sue for peace. He really did not want to fight England, he just wanted England to stay out of Germany’s way as it ravaged the rest of Europe. And Churchill, avoiding the politically expedient maneuver, responded with (in as many words), “No f____ g way!”

Instead of looking the other way, England declared war on Germany. And after Germany took over France Hitler gave Churchill the chance to rescind. And Churchill said No. So Germany, in its arrogance and stupidity, attacked England. And wound up losing.

Where would England have been without Churchill’s leadership:

We shall fight in France, we shall fight on the seas and oceans, we shall fight with growing confidence and growing strength in the air, we shall defend our island, whatever the cost may be. We shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender!”

Up to this point our president and vice president and even most of their hand-picked health officials have been providing Neville Chamberlain-like “Peace in our time” sound bytes. There’s nothing to worry about, they assure us, while we can all see by the escalating infection numbers world wide that this virus is a formidable opponent.

Churchill never assured his people that there was nothing to worry about. He told them that we will fight the existential threat to the last man, no matter the cost. America sorely could use a Winston Churchill right now. We don’t have one. At least not one who is connected to this administration.

This is our own little Battle of Britain. It’s a time when America needs true leadership. There is none.

****

While I have your attention: the stock market will not begin to rebound until the president comes clean about testing. Until America sees the actual data and has time to absorb it. It’s just like being in a relationship; you don’t get past the pain and hurt until everyone comes clean. The truth may hurt but it will set you free because there’s no more fear of the unknown.

President Trump’s strategy is his well-honed (and ultimately unsuccessful) keep-her-in-the-dark strategy. As a serial adulterer, it has always been his M.O. to lie to his spouse and continue lying. And then, when she’s finally tired of the duplicity, she asks for a divorce and he grants it to her on the condition she sign an NDA. But, like an immature child, his strategy for coping with bad news is to lie. To attempt to appease the person at the other end and hope to persuade them not to react.

He does that with wives. Does it with contractors he stiffs. Does it with Trump University students. And he’s doing it with America now.

https://twitter.com/jdubs88/status/1238439773590523904?s=20
It would be wonderful if the U.S. had a leader who spoke as clearly and was as informed as this guy

But America, at least half of it, isn’t that stupid. We’re listening to the experts. We know that he’s not being straight with us. We know the numbers are unnaturally low on cases because the government is holding back the test kits available. Doing the “No News Is Good News” tap dance.

But it won’t work here. There are too many other nations providing real data, too many experts here unafraid to speak freely. So, and I don’t expect this from him, but Trump just needs to go on TV and come clean. Needs to tell America that we’ll get as many kits out as possible. That this will be both a financial and a public health calamity. But that we’ll fight it every way possible. And that we will get past it. Right now he’s only doing the “we will get past it” part without acknowledging that it’s a real foe. And that’s why the markets are tanking.

Acknowledging that there’s a problem is the first step in solving it.

MARCH MADNESS

COVID-19 Rapid Fire Thoughts Edition:

Fact and Fiction

“Listen, Brody, it’s just a school of tuna…”

— You know those science fiction disaster films that always have the same elements: 1) Scientist/Expert makes dire warnings 2) Populace does not listen 3) Leaders poo poo his or her advice because they don’t want to incite panic, primarily because panic is bad for business and also for their reelections? Man, did those films not understand reality, eh?

Show Me Cliff Divers

I’m with Charlie here. ESPN has the opportunity to prove to its audience that sports really did exist before September of 1979. Gimme cliff diving from Acapulco. Demolition derbies. And all the Evel Knievel we can handle.

Live look-in at my stock portfolio

They can also resurrect The Superstars, which was sort of an Olympics pitting famous athletes against one another (an entirely new generation would learn who Bob Seagram was). I believe Scott Van Pelt would be into this.

Self-Control

I’m old enough to remember when President Trump delivered an address to the nation and said, “We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family.” It was fun while it lasted.

Shock Market

The Dow Jones fell more than 2,300 points yesterday. That’s it worst single-day loss ever, breaking a record set (checks notes) earlier this week, which broke a record (again checks notes) earlier this month. Oops.

To be fair, this moment is viral just as much due to Erin’s giraffe-skin dress

I knew yesterday was going to be bad when between the 9 a.m. open and the 9:30 bell on “Squawk On The Street” Jim Cramer repeated his infamous line from 2007: “They know nothing!” And then he doubled down with, “I knew more than they did in 2007 and I know more than they do now.”

Someone in the White House was watching. Later in the hour, on air, he excused himself to take a phone call. He never said who phoned, but my guess is that it was either Larry Kudlow or Steve Mnuchin.

Today’s verse to remember: “It’s easy to grin/When your ship comes in/And you’ve got the stock market beat/But the man who’s worthwhile/Is the man who can smile/When his shorts are too tight in the seat”

Your Own Private Idaho

“Get out of that state, get out of that state you’re in!”

Remember just five days ago when we wrote that there were 17 states that had the coronavirus and invited you to predict which would be the final one to report? Well, we are now down to Idaho, Montana and West Virginia. You better bewaaaaaare.

Just a coincidence that these are heavy MAGA states?

A Worthwhile Thread

From 2015 to 2017 Andy Slavitt was the administrator for Medicare and Medicaid. We might want to pay attention to this thread…

A Bulldog In Congress

This is how you hold people in power responsible. Katie Porter does not let Dr. Redfield off the hook. Good for her.

Committing A Cardinal Sinn Fein

https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/1238132638650695681?s=20

The president of the United States does not realize that Ireland is an independent republic and not part of the United Kingdom. That’s kind of a big deal over on the Emerald Isle. Like for the past seven or so centuries. What. A. Dope.

The Best Cinematic Portrayal Of How The U.S.A. Reacted To The Coronavirus

It’s like, the United States (and let’s face it, some of us dumb stockholders) had weeks and weeks to see what was happening in China (and Italy) and we all just thought, Oh, poor them. But it won’t happen here. It can’t happen here. And then for some inexact reason, Pearl Harbor hit this week. What was the turning point? Was it Wednesday’s night’s speech coupled with the Rudy Gobert and Tom Hanks news all within the same half hour? Or was it more than that?

I can distinctly talking to someone on Tuesday and telling them I was going out of New York City. At the time, and this is just three days ago, there was no feeling of Get out while you can. And at the time I remember thinking that the markets were just a see saw. The signs were there for all of us to see. I missed them because I was too enthralled with the present. The White House missed them, and continues to do so, because it does not want to deal with reality.

Knowing how many things that Trump and some of his minions have said in the past few weeks and how those words will reverberate for decades not unlike Chamberlain’s “peace in our time” quote. Now where’s our Winston Churchill?

Sticking To The Script

Man, when even the Fox News anchor gives you the look of contempt…

https://twitter.com/adamwren/status/1238421143721312258?s=20

Goodbye, Columbus

Tweet Of The Week

Yesterday, Monkeys; Next Month, Us?

It’s NEVER His Fault, Now Is It?

WENDELL’S WISDOM

by Wendell Barnhouse

No doubt the last 48 hours have had an “end of days” feeling for many. Here’s an attempt at perspective. What we’re currently experiencing is a variation on previous historical events.

If you’re 30 or younger, 9/11 was a national tragedy that most likely you didn’t fully experience/comprehend. It was horrific, but it occurred before Twitter and pervasive social media. Imagine the impact if everyone with an outlet was firing off opinions and exchanging (false) info during those dark days.

If you’re 70 or younger, you remember the national shock over JFK’s assassination. For four days that November, the three major networks did continuous non-commercial coverage. It was our first shared tragedy and the end of national innocence.

The Greatest Generation lived through its day of infamy. The nation awoke on Sunday, Dec. 7, 1941 at peace while Europe was at war. By noon, the United States had been attacked by Japan and we would soon be engaged in a two-front war in the European and Pacific theaters. The news of the Japanese attack came via the radio and newspapers.

If you had conversations with your grandparents, you might have gleaned some of their thoughts and prayers from that time nearly eight decades ago. Men in high school or college enlisted or awaited notice from the draft boards. On the home front for the next four years, those families with service members worried about receiving The Telegram and followed the war through radio, newspapers and newsreels at the local theater. For
many citizens, World War II was both intensely personal while feeling like it was a world away.

Raise your hand if you know about the Spanish flu pandemic (January, 1918-December, 1920). It infected 500 million around the world with a resulting death toll estimated between 17 million to as high as 100 million. It was one of the deadliest epidemics in human history. (And early on, our government tried to downplay the impact to prevent a
panic as World War I was concluding.)

These are scary times. That old Chinese proverb “May you live in interesting times” can fck right off. The sht got real with three major pro sports and the semi-pro NCAA calling off games.

How bad is it? The NCAA not only canceled March Madness but all spring sports championships. That includes the College World Series, which is played in early June. To me, that’s an indication that those who hope for a return to normal in a couple of weeks will be disappointed in a couple of weeks. The disease spread is likely to get worse before it gets better.

While experiencing past crises, Americans could look to the White House for calming leadership and guidance. The shock of Pearl Harbor was eased by FDR. Even overgrown frat boy George W. Bush helped us return to normal after 9/11. (Bush 43 choked away that lead and finished under .500 thanks to Iraq and the 2008 financial crash).


Donald John Trump is having his incompetence, ineptitude and inhumanity exposed. He’s also been exposed to COVID-19 but’s a scared little girl and refuses testing. His presidency has been a complete disaster, but it has required this virus to put his bumbling on full display.

The last month or so, President MQ has lied and wished that the germ would magically disappear. NPR reports that HHS secretary Alex Azar pushed Trump to ramp up testing in mid-January but President MQ feared a high number of positive tests would make his China travel ban look foolish, might hurt the stock market and ultimately hurt his chances in November. (He’s hitting .667 so far.)

With a chance to be presidential Wednesday night, President MQ made things worse. He “delivered” a “speech” (apparently written by Stephen Miller and Jared Kushner, vetted/edited by no one) that had to be corrected and clarified soon after.

Perhaps FAUX News and the MAGATs thought it was fine oratory and ignored the missteps. But it wasn’t long after that the news broke that the NBA was suspending play and that actor Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson – filming in Australia – had tested positive for COVID-19.

That BREAKING NEWS appeared to be the reality check everyone needed.
Coronavirus isn’t a hoax. It’s a disease that has created a world-wide pandemic. And it’s painfully apparent that President MQ and his sycophant toadies are whistling past the graveyard (literally).

America has millions of talented, intelligent and virtuous people. These are not two of them.

Currently, infected numbers are down in the good ol’ U.S. of A., but that’s because only about 12,000 have been tested. The Utah Jazz tested over 50 of its players and staff. The state of Oklahoma – the ENTIRE FREAKIN’ STATE – has administered about the same number. (So, if you’re involved with a pro sports team, an actor or perhaps a Congressman, hooray for you.) Anecdotal reports of doctors being told they can’t test patients for COVID-19 are as viral as the virus.

As quoted in Medium Happy Thursday, President Trump said, ‘’The virus will not have a chance against us.” That’s high-level jingoism but low-level to nonexistent action. As is becoming painfully evident, measures to combat COVID-19 are being enacted at the state and local level. It’s basically, “Folks, you’re on your own.” That disjointed response will have patchwork results, but it’s better than nothing. (President MQ isn’t even better than nothing.)


I see two possible scenarios:

  1. As a nation, we’ll muddle through, carry on and survive without NCAA bracket pools and ceremonial first pitches to start the baseball season. COVID-19 testingwill increase, more people will be diagnosed, the nation’s health care facilities and workers will be maxed out and the death toll will rise. Joe Biden, who Thursday delivered the speech Trump couldn’t, will be the Democratic nominee.

Because it will become evident that the current administration and the GOP are no better than a mob family, Biden will lead a November blue wave that will deliver the Senate to the Democrats. True healing will begin, and sane
governance will return.

2. The stock market continues its free fall, millions lose their jobs, dozens of
hospitals will figuratively collapse because of patient overload. President MQ declares a national emergency and martial law. He postpones the November elections. Typically, that type of decision would lead to rioting in the streets, but because of increased testing, more people are sick and, you know, avoid crowds.

So, that “just swallowed a snowball” feeling in your middle? It’s a familiar human condition. Hopefully we see Scenario One. If it’s Scenario Two, consider this iteration of March Madness as a preview.

BIG WAVE INVESTING (CONT.)

It was only one week ago today that I published a post titled Big Wave Investing that discussed the great risks—and potential big benefits—of going big or going home in the market.

So let’s look at Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), the company I mentioned last week. We’ll give you a chance to assess the company’s fortunes this month as a means of showing you that it’s not a big wave, but a roller-coaster.

March 2….. $4

March 4…. $8.45 (up > 100%)

March 6… $14

March 9… $17.85 (up > 300% in one week)

March 10… $6 (down nearly 1/3 of of day before price)

March 12.. $11.93

March 13… $7.35

Those are some treacherous waters. A chance to win big and a chance to lose big. I did the latter. I’ll cop to it. The simplest rules of investing apply: buy low, sell high. Hogs get slaughtered.

Lesson learned. I just wanted it on the record. And no, Susie B., I won’t be going into any more detail than that.

****

One thing I’d like to think I did learn from 2008 and 2009 and granted, I you may not want to take investing advice from someone who failed so spectacularly in the past week (had I not bought INO, my portfolio would’ve basically been unchanged from last Friday): What I learned is that there are few times, maybe none, when you have a better opportunity to make money than when the market is tanking. The keys are to 1) be in cash and 2) pick as close to the bottom as you can.

In 2009, here are just two companies and where they were at the bottom:

Sirius Radio (SIRI): January, 2009: 12 cents per share. Today, $5.65

Apple (AAPL): January, 2009: $13 per share. Today, $262.

The opportunities are there. Personally, and I’d love to hear from you, I don’t think we’re anywhere near the bottom yet. I’ve heard “whistling past the graveyard” this morning and I agree. The White House still is in the Denial phase of DABDA and the president’s minister (Kudlow, Mnuchin) are still appearing on CNBC and suggesting that we “buy the dips” because all they really care about is seeing the Dow go north and green. It’s not about reality.

Reality is that the shutdown of commerce is going to induce all Americans to spend less. Which is going to create a downward spiral effect, as well as stoking fear. When things shut down, people lose jobs and income. When people lose income, they don’t spend. And when they don’t spend, other industries are hit hard.

Couple that with what will be escalating numbers of cases diagnosed and deaths and, well, if this were an extremely turbulent flight from New York to Los Angeles, I think we’re still flying over Pennsylvania at this point.

So, for me, as much as I’ve taken some losses, I’m heading more into cash. And waiting for the pain to really arrive. Cuz it’s on the way. Your thoughts?

CANCEL CULTURE

Cancel the NBA season.

Cancel the NCAA tournament.

Cancel Broadway.

Cancel Coachella.

Cancel Disney World.

Cancel The Masters.

Cancel the Boston Marathon.

Cancel New York City (it’s coming… stay tuned).

Cancel your cruise.

Cancel SXSW.

Cancel Mormon worship services.

Cancel the NHL season.

Cancel Disney Land.

Cancel the XFL season.

Cancel spring training.

Cancel Mount Everest. Cancel Mount Everest? Yes, cancel Mount Everest. The base camp is now off-limits.

This is the new normal, at least for one month. Here is my hope for you: use this break in your routine wisely. Are you such a sports “fan” that you’ll watch anything ESPN or Fox Sports air in the next few weeks, take a moment and ask yourself, Is this an addiction (yes)?

Big world out there. Go see it.

Sports are great. But maybe you can use the time to exercise more. Learn a new skill. Read a few books. Visit a national park. Something new.

If you’re ever going to take violin lessons…

That is my sincere hope for you. Every hardship is an opportunity in disguise. Hope everyone stays healthy. And if you are, then use this time away from your sports addiction to your benefit. Don’t be that guy who’s so so addicted to cigarettes that he picks up used butts from the ground just to get that residual puff.