by Chris Corbellini

Week 14 Picks: The Dump Off Game

Sweeping statement alert: Pro football is no longer a downfield game.

Forget Delta Airlines. The dump off is the only way to fly in the league. It’s about the running backs chipping, then slipping through the middle, and when the QB can’t find anyone else in 1.81 seconds, he dumps the ball off to the guy with his hands in the air.

Yes sir, yes ma’am, it’s all about the screens and dump passes now. High percentage, vanilla, easy-like-a-Prom-Date throws. Just watch this week, with playoff positioning at stake out there in all that December frost. Risk is a four-letter cuss word to a playoff contender. No, better to safely plop a 4-yarder to a talented back, and let him scamper off with it. Happens every minute of an NFL Sunday.

And yes, sure, I have angered the football gods by writing that, and in retaliation I expect at least a dozen 50+ yard touchdown passes in Week 14. But once I finally come out of hiding, right before the start of playoffs, I will revisit my dump-off theory by digging into the numbers of the playoff teams, to see if my eyeballs aren’t lying to me. Scouts will tell you it’s easy to pick up a back in later rounds and even in the undrafted free agent market each year, but still, runner-receivers like Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley and The Ghost of Le’Veon Bell are changing the game as this is being written. That I’m sure of.

As always, home team in caps, with William Hill odds. I also added some percentages to correspond with the winners I picked – they represent the calculations made by The Quant Edge that those teams will cover the Vegas line. Full disclosure: I work at TQE as an advisor.

NY Giants (-3) over WASHINGTON (63.1%)

Big injury news here: OBJ is out with a quad injury. Related: My spider senses started tingling.

He was limited in practice on Friday, but the Giants downplayed it and it seemed like a non-issue. Odell even made headlines earlier in the week about ruining another team’s season. So, how did it all break bad? Why aren’t the beat writers being snarky about it? What happened?

Something’s up. Did Odell try bad peyote while on a wave runner with an Instagram model down in the Keys … and then told the Giants he hurt himself while getting treatment on his groin? WTF, OBJ? Is it that serious? The G-Men were starting to find a rhythm offensively.

Regardless, the Giants are facing Mark Sanchez. That defense will bottle up Adrian Peterson — who as a thirtysomething is pumping those legs like John Riggins 2.0 — and then let Mark get jumpy, which he is prone to do even behind the best of o-lines. That’s enough for a win by a TD.

Cincinnati (+14.5) covers vs. LA CHARGERS (60.5%)

What in the name of Dan Fouts and all that’s holy is this Vegas line all about? The Chargers win this one at home, of course. But even without A.J. Green, Cincy should move the ball and keep it within two scores. I see Giovani Bernard and Joe Mixon having big days catching dump-offs — that play *is* the offense of 2018. But again, LA should win it by a score or so, get to 10 wins before Christmas, and no one in Los Angeles will give a sh-t.

Put ‘em back in San Diego, NFL (Editor’s Note: Yes, yes, a thousand times yes! It’s okay to admit you made a mistake; build a new stadium, too!)  Announcers still say, “San Diego Chargers” by mistake, I still write San Diego Chargers by mistake, and besides, Philip Rivers commutes every damn day from SD, and he has eight kids that must toss him  a “Why weren’t you at my soccer game?” guilt locker every time he gets home. Let’s pretend the LA Chargers didn’t happen. Think of Papa Philip.

KANSAS CITY (-6.5) over Baltimore (50.8%)

The Chiefs have scored 40, 45, 30, 37, 26, 51 and 40 points over their last seven contests (a 38.4 average). I love what the Ravens have done with Lamar Jackson amidst their three-game win streak, but they don’t have the firepower to stay with the Chiefs at Arrowhead. There’s a contrarian take here – with jackass Kareem Hunt out of the picture that offense is not nearly as dominant, and the Ravens D is ranked third in DVOA, according to Football Outsiders. But I’m not overthinking this one. Mahomes will move on up in the NFL MVP race if he smashes here.

Carolina (-1) over CLEVELAND (59.2%)

Nah. Nope. No upset. The Panthers can still secure an NFC wild-card berth, and McCaffrey is the NFL’s best fantasy player, the most fun to watch, and a Hall of Famer at reminding you how old you are, because you watched his dad Ed play an eye-blink ago.

Last week: 1-3

Overall: 21-28

by John Walters

Tweet Me Right

A man coughed up a giant blood clot in the exact shape of the critical airway it had been blocking. Doctors aren’t sure how it came out in one piece, writes @HaleySWeiss: https://t.co/rJMCmggQI7 pic.twitter.com/KDoszugcHI

— The Atlantic (@TheAtlantic) December 6, 2018

Don’t you wish you had witnessed this as it happened? And how relieved must he have been…

Starting Five

Oh, Henry!

Three years later, and just two days before this year’s presentation, Derrick Henry creates his Heisman Moment. And, oh wow! The Tennessee Titans back took the handoff in his own end zone—the line of scrimmage was the 1—and went around left end 99 yards, but not before tossing aside a trio of Jax Jags as if they were rag dolls. Watch:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8RiH4aK3xXU

That’s the Play of the Year in the NFL and it actually begs to be scored by some vintage NFL Films music. If we knew how, we’d do it. Henry added TD runs of 3, 16 and 54 yards and rushed for 238 yards as Tennessee’s Heisman House backfield played up to form.

2. Hart’s War

While we looked away from the Oscars overnight, an episode of Black Mirror apparently broke out. Hart had accepted the gig as Oscars host two days ago, then someone with some free time unearthed tweets of his from two-thousand-and-freakin’-nine where he joked about how he didn’t want his newborn son to be gay (flash: he’s a comedian) and suddenly he was being ordered to apologize and he’d be forgiven.

To Hart’s credit (at least in our view), he said, Nope, no thanks. I’m not hosting. I’ve apologized for this before and I’m not about to endure another public flogging just to satisfy the internet trolls.

In one Instagram post Hart, who is on tour in Australia, said, “The reason why I passed is because I’ve addressed this several times. I’m not going to continue to go back and tap into the days of old when I’ve moved on and I’m in a completely different space in my life.”

Here’s hoping the Academy and a bunch of influential actor and producer types reach out to Hart and tell him they want him there. The golden rule of comedy is not to not offend; it’s to make people laugh. Hart is good at the latter.

3. Paradise Lost

It happened 77 years ago today: the attack on Pearl Harbor on the U.S. territory of Hawaii, claiming 2,403 lives. It happened on a Sunday morning, shortly after 7 a.m.  I don’t have anything else to add, other than that it was probably the deadliest day in U.S. military history until D-Day, two and a half years later.

4. Lance A Lot 

Former Tour de France six-time champion and then non-champion or whatever Lance Armstrong undertook a charm offensive of sorts this week. We haven’t listened to all the interviews, but this one with Andrew Ross Sorkin of CNBC informs us that Armstrong invested $100,000 early in Uber and has now probably made at least 100 or 300 times on his investment. “It saved our family,” Armstrong told Sorkin.

It’s funny. A man who rose to international fame and acclaim for riding a bike making a fortune on a business based on ferrying people around in automobiles.

Here’s the second part of this interview…

5. Family Affair

We hesitate to refer to any group of people cohabitating in Japan as a “nuclear family” (too soon), but the four adults and two children who share a common space in the film Shoplifters sure do seem like a family unit. That’s all we really want to say about this film that won the Palme D’Or at Cannes (I think that means it’s the world’s best soccer player?) last May.

We saw it yesterday afternoon at the Film Society of Lincoln Center, which feels like the kind of cinema where Gene and Roger could argue about movies for hours. If you live in New York or ever visit, we recommend you see a movie here. Warning: they don’t show Marvel Comics movies.

This is a film with a lot of depth, a slow reveal, and characters you’ll really come to care about. It’ll stay with you.

Reserves

Kelly Out?

White House Chief of Staff John Kelly and president Donald Trump have reportedly stopped speaking, and we’ve watched enough episodes of The West Wing to know that either Kelly is about to have a heart attack or resign. We never understood why he stayed in this post as long as he has. And don’t tell us he was sacrificing himself to save the country. Transparency is far more noble than aiding and abetting.

Anyway, sounds as if he may be gone as soon as today or some time next week. Get out while you can still do so on your own terms, General Kelly.

Music 101 

Something’s Got A Hold On Me

There’s only one Etta James (I mean, how many Ettas have you ever met?). Born in 1938 to a single, 14 year-old mother, James believed that her father was legendary billiards player Minnesota Fats. Really. She died in 2012.

Remote Patrol

Warriors at Bucks

9:30 p.m. ESPN

Giannis. KD. Steph. Klay. Donte. This would be a very sexy NBA Finals.

by John Walters

While putting together this morning’s blog at a Starbucks, this MH staffer looked down at a crowded table and noticed his beverage was missing. After a few furtive glances and gestures by the staffer, a lady seated next to him fessed up: “I thought that was mine and drank from it, then returned it to the counter because it’s not what I ordered.” She got us another one, but said, “I was hoping you wouldn’t notice.”

Only in New York, kids. Only in New York.

Starting Five

The Gang’s All Here

If you’ve never attended a funeral or wedding where there was someone you distinctly meant to avoid, you probably will some day. It’s nice to know that even those who’ve occupied the highest office in the land—or their spouses—had to deal with the same thing Wednesday at George H.W. Bush‘s funeral.

President Trump and President Obama greet each other for the first time since Inauguration Day at Bush 41 State funeral. pic.twitter.com/DAaFA57rQp

— Justin Fishel (@JustinFishelABC) December 5, 2018

Not in the shot and to the right of Hillary: The 39th president, Jimmy Carter, and his wife, Roslyn. They’re going to outlive everyone, aren’t they?

Here’s Jon Meacham‘s eulogy. Thirteen-plus minutes well-spent.

2. Unwelcome To The Jungle

A two and a half-hour theatrical production set inside an Afghani restaurant situated in the midst of a Middle Eastern refugee camp located in Calais, France. Sound entertaining? The Jungle, which won five-star reviews in London (the play was first performed in the camp itself, which French officials have since bulldozed, has just come ashore here in the U.S.

The Jungle, from above

It’s not a musical, so it won’t garner Hamilton-level love, but trust us, you will be hearing a lot about this show. It has an energy to it similar to what the original cast did with Rent. 

3. Arresting Development

“We’re taking it up a notch!”

In Canada Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Chinese tech giant Huawei and the daughter of its founder, is arrested and faces extradition to the United States. Forget last Saturday night’s kumbaya-meets-bok choy dinner in Buenos Aires.

The charges are not being released, but the funny part is that Meng was actually apprehended in Vancouver last Saturday, at about the same time the dinner was taking place. Shades of The Godfather baptismal scene, no? Settling family debts.

The MH staff wants to go on record to say that no matter our distaste for 45 the person, we  support the tough tactics with China. If you’re ever going to go after them, you do so when the economy is at its most robust. And they’re not exactly playing fair, either.

Meanwhile, if you are an American businessman, especially a somewhat visible one, you may not want to travel to China for awhile.

4. This Camel’s Back

Two years ago, Campbell’s 5’9″ guard Chris Clemons finished second in the nation in scoring (25.1 ppg). Last season, as a junior, he finished fourth (24.9), which included a career-high 51-point game. Thus far this season, he’s leading the nation at 31.4 ppg.

It’s early, of course, but the tiny Fighting Camel can score. At this level. What will happen to him next June? Will any NBA take a flier on the next Isaiah Thomas (who was already the next Isaiah Thomas?).

You won’t see his name on any NBA mock draft lists. Overlooked or over-achieving?

5. Emissions Impossible*

*The judges will also accept “C-uh-O2”

Yesterday scientists projected that global emissions of carbon dioxide are proceeding at a record pace. After flat-lining from 2014 to 2016, emissions of CO2 rose 1.6% last year and 2.7% this year. This will lead to the ice caps melting, to seas rising, to tens of millions of humans being forced to relocate (and we’re sure that will go peacefully) and to the extinction of numerous species (alas, not ours, not soon enough).

Anyway, it may be time to move to the Northwest Territories. What’s the job prospects for moderately talented bloggers in that part of the world?

Music 101

Summer, Highland Falls

Is this the most beautiful Billy Joel song? I won’t fight you on it if you think so. I won’t fight you on it if you don’t think so, either. I’m too old to fight. Or to do kamikaze shots after midnight. Where were we again? See, that’s how old I am, I can’t even retain my train of thought. This is off Joel’s fourth studio album, Turnstiles (the album cover above is from the Astor Place station of the 4/6 train), which was released in 1976. His next album would be the monster that propelled him to international stardom. Who gets four albums any more with a record company that will have the patience to bank on you that the fifth will be the breakthrough?

Remote Patrol

by John Walters

Tweet Me Right

Every time you go on to this site, you do realize you’re visiting the Trump Presidential Library, don’t you?

— Medium Happy (@jdubs88) December 3, 2018

By “this site” I’m referring to Twitter, naturally.

Starting Five

Stand-Up Guy

Wheelchair-bound Bob Dole, an erstwhile American senator and GOP presidential candidate, stands up at the age of 95 to pay tribute to the late George H.W. Bush. In the Capitol Rotunda.

2. Jersey Bro Blaze

You may have read about the family of four in Colts Neck, N.J., that were murdered and their house set on fire. On November 20 Keith and Jennifer Kaneiro and their two children  were murdered and then their mansion, located in the same town where Bruce Springsteen resides (and just two towns over from our hometown), was set ablaze.

Turns out the killer appears to be Paul Kaneiro, 51, Keith’s older brother by one year. Paul allegedly shot his brother on the front lawn in the wee hours of the morning, then went inside and killed his wife and stabbed the two children to death. Then he set fire to his own house in Ocean Township, N.J., perhaps hoping the cops would think the family itself was being targeted.

The two brothers, sons of an immigrant from Spain who moved the family to Brooklyn, made their small fortunes in computer installments and consulting in the early ’90s. They were prime examples of hard-working, first-generation Americans with some ingenuity. Somewhere along the lines, it appears, the siblings had a falling out.

3.  Kevin Up

Remember a couple years ago when Chris Rock hosted the Oscars and joked that, even with all the “Oscars So White” furor he felt obliged to accept the gig because he couldn’t have Kevin Hart taking every comedy role in Hollywood? Well, guess who’s up this year? Yup, the diminutive funny man.

We believe Hart will be terrific and inoffensive. We think Kevin Spacey would’ve been a bolder choice and would surely have drawn more viewers.

4. No Answers In Hoover

Autopsy results for E.J. Bradford, Jr.,  the young man who died in the Hoover, Ala. mall shooting event on Thanksgiving night, show that he was shot three times in the back by a police officer. In the back.

Bradford was armed at the time and the gun was visible but he was reportedly helping other patrons get to safety. What happens when a good guy with a gun emerges in a situation where there’s a bad guy with a gun. If he’s black, he becomes a target for a white good guy with a gun.

At the press conference, Bradford called the officer who fatally shot his son “a coward.” And that he may be. But the officer saw a young black male who fit the description of the shooter with a gun and was literally triggered. It was impulsive and rash, and obviously a fatal mistake. The officer certainly thought he was saving lives. Did he warn Bradford to put down his weapon? We’ll find out.

Either way, the “good guy with a gun” myth propagated by the NRA and others is just that.

5. Not All Trolls Are Found On Twitter

Meet the forest trolls of Denmark. Dani artist Thomas Dambo has “hidden” six giant trolls in forests in the area surrounding Copenhagen. Dambo only used discarded wood from saw mills and lumber yards. Nine year-old me cannot wait to visit.

It’s nice to see trolling being taken back off the internet, where it always belonged.

Reserves

Shock Market

One day after the Powell boost, the Dow Jones plummets 799 points. It was so bad that right in the middle of the week the stock market is taking today off. It’s as if Wall Street needed to enter the concussion protocol tent.*

*This cannot be helping Susie B.’s mood….

Music 101

Flowers of Guatemala

At their peak, which was just BEFORE they released their biggest-selling album to date, Document, REM was able to toss off a song like this as a throwaway and it was still lovelier and more unique than anything anyone else at the time was doing (with the exception of Peter Gabriel). This is off their fourth studio album, Life’s Rich Pageant, released in 1986. It is as REM-y as an REM song gets.

Remote Patrol

The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel

We don’t have Amazon (checks pockets; nope, still not rich) TV, but we have friends who do and they love this show that travels back in time to a New York City where a nice Jewish girl from the Bronx can attempt to be a stand-up comedian. Season 2 has just dropped, and this is from the same team who brought you Gilmore Girls, but you probably already knew that.

by John Walters

Tweet Me Right

This site is free: pic.twitter.com/da7a7POBHx

— Richard Deitsch (@richarddeitsch) December 4, 2018

So much free entertainment!

Starting Five

Meyer Retires

Ohio State coach Urban Meyer, 54 and weary of beating Michigan year after year after year, announces that he will retire after the Rose Bowl. Is it for good this time or will he take a few years’ sabbatical and return. Consider: When Nick Saban was this age, he was coaching the Miami Dolphins.

Ryan Day will take over in Columbus.

2. And The Grange Goes To…

A number of special performers and performances in the college football this season. We love that Gardner Minshew was a dad-bod, mustache’d over-the-hill QB who looked like someone’s older brother from Dazed And Confused and then turned around and led the nation in passing yards per game. Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams is an absolute beast. West Virginia wide receiver David Sills didn’t make the Biletnikoff Award finalists list, but we loved how he always seemed to make the big catches when it mattered (he’s going o make some NFL offensive coordinator very happy). Clemson’s D-line is very impressive, but as individuals they cancel one another out.

You know the Heisman finalists and they’re all worthy but for our money the player who should win the Heisman and who will win the Grange is Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray. Stats-wise, Murray leads the nation in QB Rating and Yards Per Attempt and is second only to Minshew in Total Offense. He is simply no fair one-on-one in the open field, as he demonstrated at West Virginia two weekends ago.

Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, Baker Mayfield, played the same position at the same school and like Murray, led the nation in QB Rating and Yards Per Attempt. But here’s the thing: Murray’s numbers in both stats are better than Baker’s. And this is his first, and only, season starting. Also, his Total Offense numbers are 38 yards per game higher.

Kyler Murray, your 2018 Red Grange Award winner….

3. The Circle Is Complete

Newly appointed Washington Redskins quarterback Mark Sanchez, most infamous for his 2012 butt fumble while with the New York Jets, recovers a fumble with his derriere in last night’s MNF loss to the Eagles.

In football there are tight ends and split ends, but Sanchez will forever be associated with rear ends.

4. Parts Unknown?

Bourdain, left.

We finally got around to reading Kitchen Confidential earlier this year, Anthony Bourdain‘s memoir about life in back of the house at New York City restaurants. It fully delivered. So we can’t wait to read what one of our favorite writers, Drew Magary, is able to whip up about Bourdain when interviewing some of his oldest and closest friends and colleagues for GQ.

Bourdain hung himself in June in France at the age of 61, which is an absolute shame.

5. We’ve Seen One Of These

The TV Guide Channel site released a list of the “25 Best TV Shows of 2018” and we’ve only seen one of them (No. 4). Are we not watching enough TV? How else are wasting spending our time?

Music 101

Pets

Twenty-five years ago Perry Farrell’s “pet” project, Porno For Pyros, released this song with the prescient lyric: “My friend says we’re like the dinosaurs only we are doing ourselves in much faster than they ever did…”

Remote Patrol

Boys Town

10:15 p.m. TCM

Not to be confused with Proud Boys Town, which would be an a different movie altogether (“Which would be a different movie“). From 1938, starring Spencer Tracy as the tough but fair Fr. Flanagan and Mickey Rooney as the hooligan.