WENDELL’S WISDOM

by Wendell Barnhouse

No doubt the last 48 hours have had an “end of days” feeling for many. Here’s an attempt at perspective. What we’re currently experiencing is a variation on previous historical events.

If you’re 30 or younger, 9/11 was a national tragedy that most likely you didn’t fully experience/comprehend. It was horrific, but it occurred before Twitter and pervasive social media. Imagine the impact if everyone with an outlet was firing off opinions and exchanging (false) info during those dark days.

If you’re 70 or younger, you remember the national shock over JFK’s assassination. For four days that November, the three major networks did continuous non-commercial coverage. It was our first shared tragedy and the end of national innocence.

The Greatest Generation lived through its day of infamy. The nation awoke on Sunday, Dec. 7, 1941 at peace while Europe was at war. By noon, the United States had been attacked by Japan and we would soon be engaged in a two-front war in the European and Pacific theaters. The news of the Japanese attack came via the radio and newspapers.

If you had conversations with your grandparents, you might have gleaned some of their thoughts and prayers from that time nearly eight decades ago. Men in high school or college enlisted or awaited notice from the draft boards. On the home front for the next four years, those families with service members worried about receiving The Telegram and followed the war through radio, newspapers and newsreels at the local theater. For
many citizens, World War II was both intensely personal while feeling like it was a world away.

Raise your hand if you know about the Spanish flu pandemic (January, 1918-December, 1920). It infected 500 million around the world with a resulting death toll estimated between 17 million to as high as 100 million. It was one of the deadliest epidemics in human history. (And early on, our government tried to downplay the impact to prevent a
panic as World War I was concluding.)

These are scary times. That old Chinese proverb “May you live in interesting times” can fck right off. The sht got real with three major pro sports and the semi-pro NCAA calling off games.

How bad is it? The NCAA not only canceled March Madness but all spring sports championships. That includes the College World Series, which is played in early June. To me, that’s an indication that those who hope for a return to normal in a couple of weeks will be disappointed in a couple of weeks. The disease spread is likely to get worse before it gets better.

While experiencing past crises, Americans could look to the White House for calming leadership and guidance. The shock of Pearl Harbor was eased by FDR. Even overgrown frat boy George W. Bush helped us return to normal after 9/11. (Bush 43 choked away that lead and finished under .500 thanks to Iraq and the 2008 financial crash).


Donald John Trump is having his incompetence, ineptitude and inhumanity exposed. He’s also been exposed to COVID-19 but’s a scared little girl and refuses testing. His presidency has been a complete disaster, but it has required this virus to put his bumbling on full display.

The last month or so, President MQ has lied and wished that the germ would magically disappear. NPR reports that HHS secretary Alex Azar pushed Trump to ramp up testing in mid-January but President MQ feared a high number of positive tests would make his China travel ban look foolish, might hurt the stock market and ultimately hurt his chances in November. (He’s hitting .667 so far.)

With a chance to be presidential Wednesday night, President MQ made things worse. He “delivered” a “speech” (apparently written by Stephen Miller and Jared Kushner, vetted/edited by no one) that had to be corrected and clarified soon after.

Perhaps FAUX News and the MAGATs thought it was fine oratory and ignored the missteps. But it wasn’t long after that the news broke that the NBA was suspending play and that actor Tom Hanks and his wife Rita Wilson – filming in Australia – had tested positive for COVID-19.

That BREAKING NEWS appeared to be the reality check everyone needed.
Coronavirus isn’t a hoax. It’s a disease that has created a world-wide pandemic. And it’s painfully apparent that President MQ and his sycophant toadies are whistling past the graveyard (literally).

America has millions of talented, intelligent and virtuous people. These are not two of them.

Currently, infected numbers are down in the good ol’ U.S. of A., but that’s because only about 12,000 have been tested. The Utah Jazz tested over 50 of its players and staff. The state of Oklahoma – the ENTIRE FREAKIN’ STATE – has administered about the same number. (So, if you’re involved with a pro sports team, an actor or perhaps a Congressman, hooray for you.) Anecdotal reports of doctors being told they can’t test patients for COVID-19 are as viral as the virus.

As quoted in Medium Happy Thursday, President Trump said, ‘’The virus will not have a chance against us.” That’s high-level jingoism but low-level to nonexistent action. As is becoming painfully evident, measures to combat COVID-19 are being enacted at the state and local level. It’s basically, “Folks, you’re on your own.” That disjointed response will have patchwork results, but it’s better than nothing. (President MQ isn’t even better than nothing.)


I see two possible scenarios:

  1. As a nation, we’ll muddle through, carry on and survive without NCAA bracket pools and ceremonial first pitches to start the baseball season. COVID-19 testingwill increase, more people will be diagnosed, the nation’s health care facilities and workers will be maxed out and the death toll will rise. Joe Biden, who Thursday delivered the speech Trump couldn’t, will be the Democratic nominee.

Because it will become evident that the current administration and the GOP are no better than a mob family, Biden will lead a November blue wave that will deliver the Senate to the Democrats. True healing will begin, and sane
governance will return.

2. The stock market continues its free fall, millions lose their jobs, dozens of
hospitals will figuratively collapse because of patient overload. President MQ declares a national emergency and martial law. He postpones the November elections. Typically, that type of decision would lead to rioting in the streets, but because of increased testing, more people are sick and, you know, avoid crowds.

So, that “just swallowed a snowball” feeling in your middle? It’s a familiar human condition. Hopefully we see Scenario One. If it’s Scenario Two, consider this iteration of March Madness as a preview.

BIG WAVE INVESTING (CONT.)

It was only one week ago today that I published a post titled Big Wave Investing that discussed the great risks—and potential big benefits—of going big or going home in the market.

So let’s look at Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO), the company I mentioned last week. We’ll give you a chance to assess the company’s fortunes this month as a means of showing you that it’s not a big wave, but a roller-coaster.

March 2….. $4

March 4…. $8.45 (up > 100%)

March 6… $14

March 9… $17.85 (up > 300% in one week)

March 10… $6 (down nearly 1/3 of of day before price)

March 12.. $11.93

March 13… $7.35

Those are some treacherous waters. A chance to win big and a chance to lose big. I did the latter. I’ll cop to it. The simplest rules of investing apply: buy low, sell high. Hogs get slaughtered.

Lesson learned. I just wanted it on the record. And no, Susie B., I won’t be going into any more detail than that.

****

One thing I’d like to think I did learn from 2008 and 2009 and granted, I you may not want to take investing advice from someone who failed so spectacularly in the past week (had I not bought INO, my portfolio would’ve basically been unchanged from last Friday): What I learned is that there are few times, maybe none, when you have a better opportunity to make money than when the market is tanking. The keys are to 1) be in cash and 2) pick as close to the bottom as you can.

In 2009, here are just two companies and where they were at the bottom:

Sirius Radio (SIRI): January, 2009: 12 cents per share. Today, $5.65

Apple (AAPL): January, 2009: $13 per share. Today, $262.

The opportunities are there. Personally, and I’d love to hear from you, I don’t think we’re anywhere near the bottom yet. I’ve heard “whistling past the graveyard” this morning and I agree. The White House still is in the Denial phase of DABDA and the president’s minister (Kudlow, Mnuchin) are still appearing on CNBC and suggesting that we “buy the dips” because all they really care about is seeing the Dow go north and green. It’s not about reality.

Reality is that the shutdown of commerce is going to induce all Americans to spend less. Which is going to create a downward spiral effect, as well as stoking fear. When things shut down, people lose jobs and income. When people lose income, they don’t spend. And when they don’t spend, other industries are hit hard.

Couple that with what will be escalating numbers of cases diagnosed and deaths and, well, if this were an extremely turbulent flight from New York to Los Angeles, I think we’re still flying over Pennsylvania at this point.

So, for me, as much as I’ve taken some losses, I’m heading more into cash. And waiting for the pain to really arrive. Cuz it’s on the way. Your thoughts?

CANCEL CULTURE

Cancel the NBA season.

Cancel the NCAA tournament.

Cancel Broadway.

Cancel Coachella.

Cancel Disney World.

Cancel The Masters.

Cancel the Boston Marathon.

Cancel New York City (it’s coming… stay tuned).

Cancel your cruise.

Cancel SXSW.

Cancel Mormon worship services.

Cancel the NHL season.

Cancel Disney Land.

Cancel the XFL season.

Cancel spring training.

Cancel Mount Everest. Cancel Mount Everest? Yes, cancel Mount Everest. The base camp is now off-limits.

This is the new normal, at least for one month. Here is my hope for you: use this break in your routine wisely. Are you such a sports “fan” that you’ll watch anything ESPN or Fox Sports air in the next few weeks, take a moment and ask yourself, Is this an addiction (yes)?

Big world out there. Go see it.

Sports are great. But maybe you can use the time to exercise more. Learn a new skill. Read a few books. Visit a national park. Something new.

If you’re ever going to take violin lessons…

That is my sincere hope for you. Every hardship is an opportunity in disguise. Hope everyone stays healthy. And if you are, then use this time away from your sports addiction to your benefit. Don’t be that guy who’s so so addicted to cigarettes that he picks up used butts from the ground just to get that residual puff.

PANDEMIC AND DEM PANIC

Keep shaking hands, Donald

Random but related thoughts:

–On second thought, maybe it wasn’t the best idea to install Joseph Goebbels as the president’s speechwriter. Stephen Miller may be newly married, but that hasn’t softened his racist and xenophobic views. Last night he had Donald Trump referring to it as a “foreign virus,” blamed the European Union for accelerating its spread, congratulated himself for doing more than Europe or China, and then announced he was suspending flights to the U.S.A. from Europe for 30 days—but not from the U.K. (I would assume this exemption is due to the fact that Boris Johnson “treated me fairly”).

Also, you may remember that Miller’s bride is the one who scolded a reporter who tried to ask V.P. Pence earlier this week a question as he left by saying, “Raising your voice isn’t going to help.” Which the reporter would never have had to do if Pence had not ignored the question.

–If you’re a Ride-Or-Die Trump supporter, it may be time to think of yourself as a Ride-And-Die Trump supporter.

–It’s rather incredible, no, how all of the coronavirus news came to the forefront only after the impeachment trial ended. If there had been no impeachment trial might Americans have had their eyes on the ball sooner? Isn’t it ironic that Republicans had the opportunity and, more importantly, the evidence to pull the plug on this presidency, and opted to defy the facts? And I know that Mike Pence is a science denier, but he would’ve been far more malleable about this. The deaths of countless Americans will also be on the hands of Republican senators.

https://twitter.com/jdubs88/status/1238070348219920384?s=20

–It was about two weeks ago that CNBC’s Jim Cramer, a former newspaper reporter, opined that if he were a young and enterprising reporter right now, he’d head to JFK and interview passengers coming off flights from Milan to see if they’d been tested. I don’t know if anyone followed up on his suggestion, but anecdotal evidence from Twitter states that people were getting off planes from Italy and other European precincts and not being checked at all. Trump’s suspension of European flights last night is just another instance of his closing the barn door after every last horse has escaped.

–It’s cute how leagues or teams are taking incremental steps to block the virus. Like the fact that Notre Dame has told all of its students to stay away for the remainder of Lent (April 13) but that it plans to have the football team return for practice Sunday night. It’s Thursday morning as I write this and let me tell you, those practices ain’t happening.

—Remember how on Sunday I wrote that there were 17 states that had yet to test positive for the coronavirus? We’re down to six: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Maine, Montana and West Virginia (my Wyoming bet backfired). I don’t for a moment believe that those six states don’t have a coronavirus patient. They just don’t have the test kids or the people who will go and get tested.

–Let’s make this perfectly clear: Patient Zero in the United States, as far as history will mark it down, is Donald Trump. He’s the one who spread this disease more than any other person. And come election time this November I think a lot of Republicans are going to find out that their extended exposure to him over the past few years going to be equivalent to the plague as far as their political careers are concerned.

–A message to leagues, schools, churches, etc. Do NOT listen to the president. Suspend all activities immediately. Everything should cease through March 31. I hear that the PGA event still is scheduled to tee off today as are spring training games. Golfers and ball players, even if they must be individual renegades, simply should not appear. If people have learned anything in the past two weeks, you’d think they’d have learned not to downplay the gravity of this virus. I fear they haven’t.

–There are too many deniers on-air right now, particularly in financial news, who need to shut up. Joe Kernen of CNBC chief among them. It’s not about worrying about how to put a band-aid on the economy when the patient is bleeding out.

–You’d think Donald Trump’s most stalwart defender on the other side of The Pond would be smart enough to answer this question himself:

He’s not the first and he won’t be the last Donald Trump supporter to switch his allegiance. Just go away.

The New York Times is now making its comprehensive coronavirus page free. Good move (but you should subscribe to The Times just the way you actually do pay for gas when you fill up your car).

–Donald Trump: “The virus will not have a chance against us.” It’s not ISIS, it’s VIRUS. This entire “the terrorists can’t win” mentality that has taken hold of red-cap America since 9/11 is frightfully dangerous because it encourages group-think, authoritarianism and blind patriotism in the face of reason and academic intelligence. And so now a bunch of soft-brained Americans are going to listen to a soft-brained president who think if we simply don’t kneel when the anthem is being played we’ll defeat the coronavirus. That’s not how it works, Stupid. And you’ll find out.

–We need testing kits. We need testing kits. We need them immediately.

–Last week I heard Donald Trump refer to Washington governor Jay Inslee as “a snake.” Two nights ago I watched him on Rachel Maddow and thought, Oh, this is how a president reacts to a crisis. I didn’t know much about Jay Inslee before that night. Right now I know he’s 100 times more qualified to be president than Donald Trump.

–Listen to this guy. This guy knows…

–From CNN, a compilation of all of President Trump’s lies or dishonest statements about the coronavirus.

–Moments such as this are why the Germans invented the word “zeitgeist.”

–At least Harvey Weinstein got what he deserves.

–Buried beneath all this coronavirus news? The Russian parliament tore off the band-aid, turned its back on its own Constitution, and installed Vladimir Putin as the nation’s leader until 2036. No more elections. Well, at least they’re being transparent now.

–I’m on a flight today so that should be interesting. Was headed to Arizona for a little R&R with our No. 1 reader (no, Susie B., you’re No. 2) but now we may have to re-brand it as self-quarantining in the desert. This will likely be our only post today (and I’ve got latex gloves for the flight).

–Be well, everyone.

THE YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY

Within the past two hours, the NBA suspended its season and actor (Did I really need that modifier?) Tom Hanks announced that he and his wife, Rita Wilson, have the coronavirus.

Does the coronavirus have your attention now?

Everything is about to change.

https://twitter.com/jdubs88/status/1237728999406796800?s=20

I typed that on Wednesday morning. Now, late Wednesday night, it feels inevitable. If the NBA suspended its season, would the NCAA tourney and Major League Baseball and the NHL and XFL continue on? It would seem folly.

Schools are closing. That marathon you signed up for? Ain’t happening. Nor is that concert you have tickets for. At least not this month. The reverberating effects on the economy, on your career or your academic career or your personal life, it’s way too early to even gauge those.

Just understand: things are about to change, and if it’s only for the rest of March we should consider ourselves fortunate.

And I haven’t even mentioned death yet.

The worst ever display of Jazz hands

— I thought about a pair of HBO programs that I’ve mentioned here before but don’t mind me if I do so again. The first is The Leftovers, where the premise is that an unexplained phenomenon results in 2% of the global population simply vanishing. The two main differences are that people of all ages vanish discriminately and that they indeed vanish, as opposed to die. No one knows where their bodies are.

Why did so many scenes from The Leftovers remind me of outtakes from Woodstock?

Still, 2% of the global population. Let’s hope it doesn’t get that far. But if it did, that would mean—and I explicitly did not consult anyone from the New York Times to do this math for me—about 151 million people dying. And let’s say it’s not 2% but one-tenth that total. That’s still 15 million people. Basically the equivalent of the entire tri-state metropolitan area in New York City (which, if it were actually we who perished, would probably thrill Donald Trump and MAGA).

Anyway, that’s a significant number of humans. World War II killed an estimated 70 million people, but that was only the most catastrophic event in recent human history.

Wall Street is not reacting to the nearly 5,000 dead so far. It’s girding itself for days when the number of dead jumps by a thousand or two in one day.

Will it get that dire? I honestly don’t know. But I believe that the steps being taken now will curb the spread greatly. And I believe if today was not the day, then very soon everyone’s going to come around to realizing what the Dr. Fauci’s of the world already knew: that Donald Trump and his cronies have been attempting to bail out the Titanic using a measuring cup.

The other HBO program to watch is Chernobyl, particularly the first two episodes. It’s a nuclear meltdown, not a virus, but the parallels are striking: governmental leadership that is more interested than suppressing information than saving lives; leaders far more concerned about assessing blame than they are with solving the crisis; leaders who arrogantly disregard the dire warnings of scientists until it’s almost too late…in the meantime thousands of innocent people die.

Roughly 20,000 Soviets died in the wake of Chernobyl, as did the Soviet Union itself… which gave rise to a Wild West political vacuum in Russia… which opened the door for Vladimir Putin to come in and use threats and a secret police force to take power for himself.

How many Americans will die? I honestly don’t know. Let’s hope this is much ado about nothing. We’ll all know a lot more three weeks from now, when the calendar turns to April. But I think many Americans finally began taking this pandemic thing seriously today.

— By the way, President Trump neither looked or sounded good this evening on TV. Granted, it’s the most stressful time of his presidency. But what happens if one of these older Republican politicians who have been so cavalier about the coronavirus dies from this? Will it still just be the flu to them? Science and nature have a peculiar way of putting the folly and pride of man in its place, as anyone who’s ever tried to stand in front of a large wave and dared it to knock him down knows.

Also, something to think about: no one famous has died yet. And maybe no one will. But, sad as it is to say, this pandemic won’t be real to many Americans until someone who could conceivably appear on the cover of US Weekly perishes.

— I was thinking about Hillary Clinton today. Imagine if she’d won. First of all, America wouldn’t have squandered the last six months obsessing over impeachment (I imagine the chances of her being caught in flagrante delicto would be rather minute) and she probably would’ve been pro-active on this. Oh, to wonder…

–Finally, at least for this evening, I think time will demonstrat that the White House’s hubris and negligence are going to increase the death toll exponentially. And the irony here is that almost all of those casualties are going to be the elderly. And I’m going to wonder how just many of those people America will bury are avid Fox News viewers. At least two-thirds is my guess. A different president wouldn’t have stopped the coronavirus. But a different president would have been responsible for a much swifter response and a far smaller body count. And probably wouldn’t have used every single on-camera appearance to pat himself or herself on the back and reminding everyone what a good job they were doing.